Crude Oil and Natural Gas May Be Tired of Gasoline Stealing the Headlines

By Rod David  FEB 05, 2013 3:25 PM

Plus, the long bond gapped down to attack last week's lows, underscoring that Monday's recovery effort had stopped short of credulity.

 


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: The long bond gapped down to attack last week’s lows, underscoring that Monday’s recovery effort had stopped short of credulity. But there is still a burden of proof on sellers to follow through Wednesday.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
The bounce’s 79.85 target was attacked both overnight and intraday Tuesday. Back under 79.40 should signal the retest underway of the decline’s 79.05 target.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The pullback’s 1.3465-1.3475 target was met Monday night, triggering a reaction up to 1.3600 Tuesday, targeting a retest of the rally’s 1.3635-1.3640 target, probably to 1.3680.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Closing at 1675.00 Monday undermined buyers only enough for Tuesday’s surge to 1687.00 to react down sharply to probe under 1669.00. Still testing at 1675.00 Monday’s close prevented the reaction down from gaining traction. Tuesday’s close was again testing 1675.00.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday’s narrow ranging avoided extending in either direction. But it did retest 32.00 again. Any further delay in breaking higher should soon break lower, if not already breaking lower at Wednesday’s open.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday’s failure to close above 143-18 wouldn’t have been a problem had it not been probed intraday. But it was, so the consequence was to gap down Wednesday under 143-04 and to probe under 142-26. Any lower close Wednesday would confirm that 141-26 is in-play.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday’s gap under 97.00 might have been “ineffectual pessimism,” mostly since it failed to extend down intraday, but also because Tuesday gapped back up. Tuesday’s gap up failed to extend higher, suggesting that it might be “ineffectual optimism.” The alternating sequence tends to favor the latter setup, so immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for extending the rally to 99.00.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
The 3.36 buy signal was tested Tuesday, and essentially still being tested through the close. Immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for launching a rally leg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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