Trading Radar: S&P 500 Makes New Highs, Jobs Week on the Horizon

By Michael Sedacca  JAN 25, 2013 4:58 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


Equities grinded to multi-year highs over the past holiday-shortened week as most economic data (besides the weekly initial jobless claims data) was weaker, though this is not entirely unexpected given the recent hurricane in the northeast. The existing and new home sales data were both notably weaker and the regional Fed surveys continued to show extreme weakness. Treasuries were stronger throughout the week, but were pummeled on Friday after European banks repaid a sizable sum of loans taken via the central bank's LTRO program and German bunds took a dive.

Next week is the monthly nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic are forecasting that it will remain unchanged on a month-to-month basis. Employers are expected to add a seasonally adjusted 155,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 7.8%. Personal finances will also be released in the form of personal spending and income. Though it is December's data, it is reasonably expected that this data should be strong as the current data suggests robust consumer spending during the holiday season.

Next week is also Fed week. The FOMC will release its monthly rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. During last month's meeting, the Fed released new quantitative thresholds tied to unemployment and inflation that forecasts when the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy. Any increase to the Fed's QE program is highly unexpected, especially after it raised its monthly purchases last month.

In earnings there is again a heavy pace of reports, mostly skewed towards tech companies. Of the tech companies, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), and Fusion-io (NYSE:FIO) are on the calendar. Other companies reporting include Ford (NYSE:F), US Steel (NYSE:X), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), UPS (NYSE:UPS) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM).

Monday, January 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
 
08:30 Durable Goods Orders – consensus 2.0%, prior 0.8%
08:30 Durable Goods Ex Transports – consensus 0.8%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -1.2%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – prior 1.8%
10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM – consensus 0.0%, prior 1.7%
10:30 Dallas Fed – consensus 3, prior 6.8
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 29-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Leading Index
CNY Industrial Profits
21:45 NZD Trade Balance
11:00 Italy to sell notes, inflation-linked bonds
 
Earnings

Before:
Caterpillar (CAT)
 
After:
Yahoo! (YHOO)
VMWare (VMW)
Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday, January 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:00 S&P/Case Schiller 20 City MoM – consensus 0.70%, prior 0.66%
09:00 S&P/CS 20 City Composite – consensus 5.50%, prior 4.31%
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 64.0, prior 65.1
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 9-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
23:50 JPY Retail Trade
11:30 Germany selling EU1b in 10-year inflation linked notes

Earnings

Before:
Corning (GLW)
Harley Davidson (HOG)
Pfizer (PFE)
DR Horton (DHI)
AK Steel (AKS)
Ford (F)
Valero Energy Group (VLO)
EMC (EMC)
 
After:
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Broadcom (BRCM)
US Steel (X)
Jetblue (JBLU)

Wednesday, January 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 165K, prior 215K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 1.2%, prior 3.1%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 2.1%, prior 1.6%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.5%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ – consensus 1.0%, prior 1.1%
2:15 FOMC Rate Decision
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes
                       
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
11:30 Germany to sell EU2b 30-year bonds

Earnings

Before:
Northrup Grumman (NOC)
ADT (ADT)
Boeing (BA)
Southern Company (SO)
Phillips 66 (PSX)
 
After:
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Citrix (CTXS)
Facebook (FB)
Skyworks (SWKS)
Electronic Arts (EA)
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
Fusion-io (FIO)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Fortinet (FTNT)

Thursday, January 31

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 Challenger Job Cuts – prior -22.1%
08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 350K, prior 330K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3191K, prior 3157K
08:30 Employment Cost Index – consensus 0.8%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.8%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.4%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.4%, prior 1.4%
08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.4%, prior 1.5%
09:45 Chicago PMI – consensus 50.3, prior 48.9
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 29-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:00 GBP Home Prices
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
13:30 CAD GDP
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate

Earnings

Before:
Dow Chemical (DOW)
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
Sherwin Williams (SHW)
Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Mastercard (MA)
Dunkin Brands (DNKN)
Aetna (AET)
Altria (MO)
NASDAQ (NDAQ)
Under Armour (UA)
UPS (UPS)
After:
Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Blackstone (BX)
Cavium (CAVM)
Viacom (VIA)

Friday, February 1
 
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls – consensus 155K, prior 155K
08:30 Private Payrolls – consensus 163K, prior 168K
08:30 Manufacturing Payrolls – consensus 10K, prior 25K
08:30 Unemployment Rate – consensus 7.8%, prior 7.8%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings – consensus 34.5, prior 34.5
08:58 Markit US PMI Final – consensus 55.5, prior 56.1
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence Statement – consensus 71.4, prior 71.3
10:00 Construction Spending – consensus 0.6%, prior -0.3%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – consensus 50.5, prior 50.7
10:00 ISM Prices Paid – consensus 56, prior 55.5
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales – consensus 15.2M, prior 15.3M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales – consensus 12M, prior 11.97M
11:00 Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b bonds in 5 to 6.5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD PPI
01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
08:55 EUR German PMI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate

Earnings

Before:
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Merck (MRK)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Mattel (MAT)
Legg Mason (LM)
Chevron (CVX)
Standard Pacific (SPF)
Tyson Foods (TSN)
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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