Gold, Crude Oil Trying to Rally Against a Range-Bound Dollar

By Rod David  JAN 22, 2013 3:45 PM

Monday night's Bank of Japan move shook up currencies, but only the yen avoided settling back within its recent range.

 


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: Monday night’s Bank of Japan move shook up currencies, but only the yen avoided settling back within its recent range. Can gold and crude oil rally if the dollar is stuck in a range?

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Although 79.85 held as support Tuesday, failing to close above Friday’s high prevented signaling the rally would extend any higher.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The BOJ move triggered a volatile reaction that attacked both 1.3380 above and 1.3260 below. Neither was actually touched or even probed, suggesting that the next breakout attempt may be productive, but still fail and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

Gold
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Narrowly touching the 1685.00 pullback limit resolved up in time for the rally to resume through Tuesday’s open, still suggesting that higher highs up to 1720.00 are in-play. But there is no bullish reason to further delay probing above 1700.00.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Holding the 31.65 pullback limit Friday kept alive momentum next targeting 32.50, which was attacked to within $0.15 Tuesday by fresh highs.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday overcame a test of 145-16 support to reverse up into positive territory, testing higher prior lows” at 146-00 and filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 146-04 close. Back under 145-16 would now qualify as a sell signal.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally targeting 99.00 might have resumed Tuesday with fresh highs being probed up to 96.40. The rally cannot afford to hesitate before printing more fresh highs, and back under 95.70 could trigger a deeper corrective slide.

Natural Gas
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
The extended bounce’s lack of refueling didn’t prevent Tuesday from probing fresh highs up to 3.64. Its reaction down to 3.50 was recovered back into positive territory, ultimately failing to improve. Back under 3.44 would suggest the corrective dip targeting 3.25 was underway.


Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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