Gold's New Relative High Tuesday Does Not Yet Relieve the Attraction to Retest Recent Lows

By Rod David  JAN 15, 2013 3:15 PM

Also today, the euro reversed its course sharply.


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: Yesterday I noted how last week’s trending in gold, bonds, and natural gas had a residual effect on Monday. Their moves extended Tuesday, but a chink in the armor appeared with the euro reversing course sharply.

Dollar Basket
A reaction down from Tuesday’s test of the 79.85 bounce limit should hold 79.70 to maintain potential for extending the bounce to 80.50.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday afternoon’s dive attacked the 1.3260 pullback objective, after the open gapped down. That’s a lot of selling pressure, making a test of 1.3260 that much more likely to hold.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday’s recovery had held 1675.00 resistance to avoid retracing all of Thursday’s rally. Any higher becomes unlikely to retest recent lows down to 1637.40. So, Tuesday’s fresh highs at 1685.00 suggest the recent lows won’t be retested, not unless Wednesday’s open were to gap under 1675.00 and trend down sharply.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday’s extension of the recovery attacked near-term resistance at 31.65, which is in-play so long as 31.00 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday’s probe above 145-16 was retraced entirely, but only back to unchanged levels. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s 146-00 high, and also ranged flat-to-lower. This pattern is not gaining traction, but its gains can continue indefinitely. Back under 145-16 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday’s late bounce back to 94.20 resistance was probed briefly overnight, but mostly rejected Tuesday afternoon by sliding down to 93.20, keeping alive potential for extending down to 91.25.

Natural Gas
Extending immediately to 3.44 without first dipping to refuel buyers will undermine any higher close from gaining traction to become a new rally leg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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