Minyanville's T3 Morning Market Call: Market Marches Onward Despite More Apple Weakness

By T3Live.com  JAN 14, 2013 8:56 AM

News hit last night that AAPL is cutting down on component shipments for the iPhone 5 because of weak demand.

 


S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) futures are up a point or so, but are being dragged down by the pre-market weakness in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). News hit last night that the company is cutting down on component shipments for the iPhone 5 because of weak demand. The S&P is flirting with the 1474 pivot created last September as earnings start to pour in this week.
 
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also will be speaking at 4:00 p.m. today, perhaps to clarify some of the thoughts from the Fed minutes. Fed Governor Evans stated that he thinks growth could be 2.5%, which I agree with -- I think it could be a touch higher. All in all we have gotten a very nice start to the year. We started with two powerful days, got some nice digestion, and then got some follow-through.
 
It will be interesting to see how markets handle 1474. Do we blast through and induce another round of squeezing/chasing? If we do so and then close above, we could see 1500 pretty quickly, in my opinion. If we push through, squeeze, and then close below 1474, that could indicate a pause and the rally could change the speed a bit. Technician Tom Demark came out with a note that we can push to S&P 1500 then correct 5% or so thereafter, just in time for the debt ceiling debate in February. At this point, just don’t have a stubborn opinion and fall asleep at the wheel.
 
AAPL is the story in tech today, but it’s been the same story this year. The stock came under a lot of pressure last year and then continued to show relative weakness in 2013. Every rally attempt into resistance was met with selling. S&Ps are up 50 points this year. AAPL was down $30ish before today, giving clues it was for sale. Relative weakness matters.
 
Some traders are probably disappointed that we didn’t have the opportunity to short through $515 then potentially add if we broke $501-505 for a flush below $500 since this setup happened already this morning. Caution has been important here. I come in flat and not in a rush to do anything. Micro support is $486-492. A close below $501-505 could open the door for a continued move down into earnings. One point to watch is $460 but $440 is the major level. We talked about the "Cracked Halo" for AAPL on December 5, 2012.
 
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) continues to hold higher. Let's see if that continues. Above $267 some momentum could continue.
 
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) continues to follow its 8- and 21-day moving averages. Earnings are Thursday.
 
Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) has a been acting OK with a pretty tight setup. Above $558-563 and it might go again.
 
Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) continues to act well. Pivot resistance is $174.
 
Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) was upgraded and acts slow but OK.
 
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is also coming off some lows.
 
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has been on fire, and is opening above $32. This has been a great trade from $24; it then gave a nice rest with an additional entry through $28.60, and then it even rewarded a “chaser” buy through $30. Pretty big resistance is $32-34. I will test a little short then see if they “sell the news” Tuesday for a trade.
 
LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) has been quiet, but has a great weekly setup. As long as it stays above $116 I will try and stay with it.
 
Banks continue to act well. They’ve had a huge move and are in the midst of consolidating.
 
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) earnings were OK and held in well. It was downgraded this morning.
 
We will see results from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) this week.
 
General Electric (NYSE:GE) earnings are on Friday. It needs to get above $21.45 to start acting better.
 
The Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) is also acting well. Look out for Lennar (NYSE:LEN) earnings this week.
 
Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are starting to poke their heads up a bit; they are worth taking a look at.
 
Metals still are frustrating. They are holding intermediate support but have gotten no traction. The Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) is still holding $158.50 but needs to get above and close above $164 in order to get some more attention.
 
The Inverse 20+ Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) was pretty ugly on Friday. I'm not sure what to make of it yet. If it fills the gap and doesn’t hold $64ish, I know fast money could leave this trade.
 
Last week as a guest host on CNBC World Markets we touched on some themes I have been talking about for a while now.
 
US Equities Aren't Dead: Pro
Thursday, January 10, 2013 5:10 p.m. ET 
Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer, T3live.com says US equity markets have started 2013 on the right note. He adds that the S&P 500 could reach 1,500 pretty quickly if it manages to close above 1,474 
Source: CNBC.com
 
Adopt a 'Portfolio Approach' to Investing
Thursday, January 10, 2013 5:20 p.m. ET 
Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer, T3live.com advises investors to take five to seven stocks that they know very well and manage them until market conditions changes 
Source: CNBC.com
 
Riding Boldly Into Earnings Season, but Watch Out 
Thursday, January 10, 2013 6:32 p.m. ET 
"I think it's going to be really tough to get through this earnings season without fits or starts. There's so much riding on this earnings season because of expectations for growth going into 2013. I think it could be pretty dicey," said one analyst. 
Source: CNBC.com | By: Patti Domm
 



Scott Redler is long BAC, GE, F, LNKD, TBT, INTC, S. Short SPY, FB.