Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
I returned last night from Del Boca Vista (no, I didn't take the pen
!) following a long-overdue visit with my 92-year-old grandmother.
The Margarita Maven is chugging along—not as fast as she once was but she's still sharp—and for that I'm thankful. There's a lot of anger and pain in the world; you have to make the time to squeeze in the smiles, too.
As I edge back into the flow, here are some top-line vibes in no particular order:
There's been a lot of debate as to whether this is a bullish basing (before we trade higher) or a bearish churn (before we turn lower). There's no need to guess or press but there is utility in using technical levels to help define your risk if you're trading the broader tape.
Per the charts below, NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) 2700-2750 is a two-sided toggle (when breached, the buyers will be higher and the sellers lower) while the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) is bumping up against last year's best levels—which, if broken, will put the index back at prices last seen in late 2007 (S&P 1460 and S&P 1435 are stair-step support).
As discussed last week, BKX (INDEXDJX:BKX) 52 is the first level of support for the financial complex. Hoofy and the bulls, whispering "As go the piggies, so goes the poke," won't break a sweat until that level is breached.
I read an article over the weekend, The 12 Cognitive Biases That Prevent You From Being Rational, and there are lessons in there for all of us. As someone who likes to poke holes in my own train of thought, this offered some valuable guides to potential glitches in our individual processes.
I feel compelled to offer a point of clarification; when I mentioned Facebook and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) in my Ten Themes for 2013, I was speaking to social mood, not stock prices (although they're not independent, as we've learned).
We've had a good handle on Facebook (fading the IPO and getting bullish into $19) and I think the management at LinkedIn is top-notch, so I wanted to make sure I spoke to this before we got too far into the nuts and guts of the trading year.
My sell-side contacts in the Street continue to share war stories on the cost-cutting side; the Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) news of late is yet another data point in the evolution of The State of the Art, first scribed in 2006.
If I were smart and could write, this is what I would say...
Position in spx, relationship with RIM