Let's make one thing clear: Nobody I know, including myself, predicted that gold would drop from 1690 to 1625 inside of 48 hours this week. That was not in the charts and so I won’t even pretend I was going to see that train coming through the tunnel.
With that said, let's try to let the dust settle but take a look objectively at some possibilities.
1. We all know that some FOMC minutes released did in fact cause some major downside in gold based on potential for eventual end to QE in the US down the road. It did cause stops to trigger, probably some margin calls, and then more stops creating a mini crash of near 4% on the metal.
2. The ABC pattern appeared to be completed at 1634 last week, especially when we rallied over 1681 pivot. A brief dip to 1625 spot took place this morning early, and we now trade again around the 1631 pivot.
What are the technical options?
Well, if we stick with traditional Elliott Wave Theory, we can see a potential 3-3-5 pattern still unfolding and wave 5 of C is now in play. 3-3-5 patterns have 3 waves down, 3 up, then 5 down to complete the entire ABC Structure.
To confirm this, we will want to see gold bottom here fairly soon in wave 5 of C.
Below is the updated chart of SPDR Gold Trust ETF
(NYSEARCA:GLD) showing you this pattern. It's the best I can do right now. I will keep you updated as things unfold. To be sure, I count this as cycle year 13 in the gold bull market and I had gold peaking in June of 2013 at 2280-2400 ranges per ounce, but we will have to see now if that is still valid or not based on whether this C wave can hold and reverse hard soon.
Editor's Note: David Banister is the chief investment strategist and co-founder of ActiveTradingPartners.com, a small-cap portfolio and market advisory service.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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