The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Remember how silver had been outperforming gold through the latest dip and its recovery? Now, not so much. Silver’s fresh trend low on a Friday was accompanied by a second consecutive lower breakout close. Any recovery must still form a bottom.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Friday’s test of prior lows could still be rejected Monday by an immediate recovery back above 80.15. Otherwise, the trend is down so long as 79.85 holds test as resistance.
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday’s slight higher high and its slight negative close were too shallow to signal momentum reversing down. But the formation did require a bearish resolution Friday, or else a bigger rally leg would be underway. An overnight probe above prior highs did reverse into negative territory, but only momentarily before reversing up sharply into the noon hour. A downleg would trigger under 1.3065, but the rally meanwhile is next targeting 1.3222 and potentially 1.3640.
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday’s narrow ranging consolidated Thursday’s plunge, further confirming that a false break higher is needed to resume the decline’s momentum.
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday’s narrow ranging extended Thursday’s plunge to slightly lower lows. Fresh trend lows on a Friday, combined with being a second consecutive lower breakout close, all but ensure a lower close before any buy signal can form or trigger.
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite Thursday’s recovery into positive territory at 148-08 not lasting through the close, fresh highs were probed Friday up to 148-19. Closing under 148-08 would confirm buyers gained no traction, and under 148-00 would resume the decline next targeting 147-00.
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday’s late dip under 86.00 was too late to gain traction, and it was recovered back up to 86.50 Friday. A fresh low close would target 81.85-82.50.
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Another gap down and fresh low Friday, without much further selling pressure intraday. But this gap down was within the prior session’s range. The session developed mostly within the prior session’s range, too. And the close threatened to turn positive. Avoiding a new trend low close on Friday is an important step to stemming the selling pressure.
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