Silver Ends Week in Worst Possible Way While Natural Gas Shows How It's Done

By Rod David  DEC 14, 2012 2:55 PM

Remember how silver had been outperforming gold through the latest dip and its recovery? Now, not so much.

 


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: Remember how silver had been outperforming gold through the latest dip and its recovery? Now, not so much. Silver’s fresh trend low on a Friday was accompanied by a second consecutive lower breakout close. Any recovery must still form a bottom.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Friday’s test of prior lows could still be rejected Monday by an immediate recovery back above 80.15. Otherwise, the trend is down so long as 79.85 holds test as resistance.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday’s slight higher high and its slight negative close were too shallow to signal momentum reversing down. But the formation did require a bearish resolution Friday, or else a bigger rally leg would be underway. An overnight probe above prior highs did reverse into negative territory, but only momentarily before reversing up sharply into the noon hour. A downleg would trigger under 1.3065, but the rally meanwhile is next targeting 1.3222 and potentially 1.3640.

Gold
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday’s narrow ranging consolidated Thursday’s plunge, further confirming that a false break higher is needed to resume the decline’s momentum.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday’s narrow ranging extended Thursday’s plunge to slightly lower lows. Fresh trend lows on a Friday, combined with being a second consecutive lower breakout close, all but ensure a lower close before any buy signal can form or trigger.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite Thursday’s recovery into positive territory at 148-08 not lasting through the close, fresh highs were probed Friday up to 148-19. Closing under 148-08 would confirm buyers gained no traction, and under 148-00 would resume the decline next targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday’s late dip under 86.00 was too late to gain traction, and it was recovered back up to 86.50 Friday. A fresh low close would target 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Another gap down and fresh low Friday, without much further selling pressure intraday. But this gap down was within the prior session’s range. The session developed mostly within the prior session’s range, too. And the close threatened to turn positive. Avoiding a new trend low close on Friday is an important step to stemming the selling pressure.


Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.