Crude Oil Seems Unaware of Gold's Difficulties

By Rod David  NOV 30, 2012 3:25 PM

Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

 


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: If gold isn’t following crude oil higher, then it should be on its way to fresh lows -- and possibly crude oil shouldn’t be hovering so high.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Thursday’s close above 80.13 suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close, especially above 80.45 would confirm. Otherwise, the decline is vulnerable to resuming.

Eurodollar
Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Although Friday’s fresh high did not extend, it did prove that Thursday’s fresh high did not peak. 1.3050 remains alive, so long as 1.2955 holds as support.

Gold
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Having held its 1729.50 (basis Feb, 1727.00 basis Dec) bounce limit Thursday, the decline was free to resume. Friday’s drop to 1710.00 (basis Feb, 1708.40 basis Feb) closed under 1717.00-1719.50 (basis Feb, 1714.50/1717.00 basis Dec) to further confirm the new downleg underway.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday’s open plunged under the 33.90 pullback limit to attack 33.20. Just closing under 33.55 suggests that momentum has already reversed down. A second consecutive lower close would confirm this.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract (NYSEARCA:US, ETF: (TLT)
The “ineffectual optimism” at recent highs continued Friday by gapping up to Wednesday’s 150-14 high and failing to extend any higher. Back under 149-18 would target 149-04 and probably resume the decline.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Since Thursday’s gap up that rejected Wednesday’s gap down did not extend higher immediately Friday, the wide sideways range was likelier to persist into the weekend. The session did eke out fresh highs for the week to attack 89.00. But again for Monday, not trending higher immediately would make sideways ranging likelier.

Natural Gas
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Although Thursday’s new low close never probed fresh lows intraday, the drop extended down sharply Friday instead of finally triggering any buy signal. There is no active pattern.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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