SPX Update, and Some Bull/Bear Thanksgiving Humor

By Jason Haver  NOV 21, 2012 9:50 AM

While we're waiting for the rally to close in on a minor top, let's see what the bulls and bears are each thankful for...


MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL No material change since yesterday's outlook, though I have outlined the two most likely short-term paths from here.  Odds are good that at least a minor top is nearby, but it appears reasonably likely that we'll see slightly higher prices first.  The chart below shows that as long as bulls can hold above 1382, they have a good shot at moving the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) into the mid-to-high 1390s. 

Click to enlarge
The SPX hourly chart notes that both bull and bear intermediate possibilities remain alive.  Worth noting: virtually none of my intermediate indicators have given buy signals yet and the intermediate trend is still technically "down."  The preferred count sees a correction beginning in the next few sessions, then (most likely) another leg up.

Click to enlarge
In conclusion, it does appear marginally more likely that this wave has a bit higher to run short-term, but that it's closing in on at least a minor top.  There's an outside shot this top will mark ALL OF Wave (4), but odds currently favor that there will still be at least one more leg up after the next decline. 
On a lighter note, my middle son is in second grade, and his teacher had him make one of those "Five Things I'm Thankful For" lists for Thanksgiving.  Well, this gave me the idea to conduct a very scientific survey amongst bulls and bears, to find out what they're thankful for... but that seemed like way too much work. So after several grueling minutes of sitting at my computer and writing down whatever popped into my head, I was able to compile two such lists which have a margin of error of only +/- 100%.  Such is my dedication to scientific accuracy!
Below are the two lists: The first list is from the Bulls, who responded to the survey (interestingly, more imaginary bulls responded than bears); and the second list is from the handful of Bears who took the time to fill out the survey forms (many of them noted that they were too busy canning holiday yams for their bomb shelters to respond):

Five Things We're Thankful For
By: The Bulls
1.  Ben Bernanke and his tireless printing press.
2.  The Amazing Economic Recovery since 2009!  Ha ha, we're just kidding. We mean the printing press again.
3.  Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Well, at least we used to be...
4.  Mario Draghi and his unwavering commitment to "save" the euro, or whatever it is he's doing over there (wink wink, nudge nudge, know what we mean?).
5.  Hey, not fair!  Why do we have to stop after only five things?  We need this list to keep going higher and higher!  On second thought... in 2007, people said our list was in a bubble after we reached 258,963 things we're thankful for, and that list ended up crashing.  We certainly don't want to repeat our mistakes, so we'll just end the list by saying we're thankful for all the central banks.  We're pretty sure our list has now reached a permanently high plateau... 

Five Things We're Thankful For
By: The Bears
1.  Beer.
3.  We figured we'd skip right to 3, since we made the mistake of shorting 2, and now we're forced to cover at a loss.
4.  Hmm.
5.  Beer.
Anyway, happy Thanksgiving!  Trade (and drive, and eat, and deal with the in-laws) safe, and I'll see you again on Monday.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.