Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
Yesterday, we offered that it was Do or Die for the Bullish Try.
We mapped levels, offered road signs, and shared that the action and reaction “in and around” the S&P
(INDEXSP:.INX) 1480 level would shape the tape, perhaps all the way into year-end.
True to the path of maximum frustration, yesterday’s market was full of fits and starts before ending the day essentially where it began. It was, for lack of a better analogy, a placeholder in the much bigger jigsaw puzzle that has become the global financial landscape.
This morning, before today’s session began, I wrote the following comments on our real-time Buzz & Banter (click here for a free two-week trial!):
has arrived and on cue, the early morning futures are indicated in the hole (S&P -10, NDX
(INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) -22). If you're bullish, this is what you want to see (as a gap higher would have most certainly come for sale). This is no guarantee that we'll snap higher, mind you, but it is, in my view, a necessary prerequisite.
"Per the chart we shared yesterday
-- the false breakdown, or the 'drop & pop' -- we can allow for some wiggle room under the S&P 200-day at 1380. This may well be the "Do or Die for the Bullish Try" that we spoke of yesterday and I don't believe the bulls will give up without a fight.
I intend to fade (read: buy) the opening for a trade and immediately define my risk thereafter.”
I followed that script, using Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) as my primary upside rental vehicle (also shared on the Buzz in real-time) but this isn’t about me; this is about the process and rigor involved in trying to find “the easy trade” each day and having the discipline to know when one doesn’t exist (such as yesterday).
Where do I think Apple -- and by extension, the tech tape -- can trade to? The 200-day on each, $594 and 2664 respectively, are as intuitive an any other levels (if the 200-day holds its 200-day at 1380) but given my chosen stylistic approach of “hit it to quit it,” I will likely be long gone by the time, and if, those levels arrive.
While there are plenty of stories about hardship and anger on the back of the storm, there are many examples of the human spirit rising above to help those in need. Our town took Sandy in the teeth and I can tell you that the community rallied together to help one another; that's The Upside of Anger and something to take solace in. When there's a will, there's a way.
Remember, with year-end approaching and performance anxiety percolating, the buyers are higher and the sellers are lower -- which creates a tough tape to trade!
The $19 level in Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) held yet again (thus far); this is the 50% retracement of the entire corporate price-cycle which makes it an important level to watch through a technical lens. I will note, however, that plenty of supply was waiting to sell higher (post-earnings) levels.
There was a moment on Sunday night, when the twins read Ruby her bedtime books as Jamie and I watched on, that all was well in the world, if even for a moment. The phrase, "It's not the time in our lives, but the lives in our time," comes to mind as I reflect on that momentary nirvana.
I am waiting for a pullback in Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) before I nibble back and if I don't get it, that's the way it goes. The stock recently popped 40%, which will mean nothing if it ramps to double-digits from here, but it's not my style to chase. I am, however, a buyer of the BB10 in size after seeing what that puppy could do yesterday.
I am looking forward to this year's Festivus, in part because of the path we took to get here and in part for the future roots it will plant. If you haven't been to one of these events, I can't possibly recommend it more; it's good people gathering for a great cause, and sharing hugs and handshakes along the way.
Position in AAPL
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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