Trading Radar: Greece to Vote on Budget, Fed to Release FOMC Meeting Minutes

By Michael Sedacca  NOV 09, 2012 3:52 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


Monday, US banks will be closed for the Veterans' Day holiday. Bond markets will close as well, but stock markets will open. As such, it is likely to be a lighter day in terms of volatility.

The pace of US economic data will slow. The only notable economic data out of the US will be the consumer price index (read: inflation) and producer price index (read: producer inflation). Economists are expecting an annualized gain to 2.1% from 2.0%, and to 2.6% from 2.0%, respectively. Because the FOMC next month will decide on what size they plan on expanding QE3 to, a large jump in inflation may be a negative sign.

Globally, the big event is the eurozone's GDP release in the later part of the week. Because Greece and Europe as a whole are back on the radar screen, any slowdown in Italian or French growth will be met negatively. Also in Europe, EU finance ministers will meet on Monday to discuss the debt crisis, but is likely not to come to a decision on a final aid disbursement to Greece. Greece will vote for the 2013 budget on Wednesday, which is in danger of not passing considering the slim margin the austerity vote passed by earlier this week.

On the central bank front, the Fed will release the minutes of its FOMC meeting from October. The most important thing to watch for is any mention of the committee's decision to use quantitative targeting for its future interest rate policy. The other important thing to look for is any comment on what the Fed will do concerning purchases of Treasuries once Operation Twist ends at the end of the year. It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Fed will convert the $45 billion in purchases to outright balance sheet expansion.

Key earnings include Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), and Dell (NASDAQ:DELL).

Monday, November 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major reports – US bank holiday

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Home Loans
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders

Earnings

Before:
DR Horton (DHI)
Beazer Homes (BZH)


Tuesday, November 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – consensus 92.8, prior 92.8
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – consensus 54.0, prior 54.0
2:00 Monthly Budget Statement – consensus -$115.0B, prior -$98.5B
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.35b-$5.25b notes in 6 to 8-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Industrial Production
09:00 EUR Italian CPI
09:30 GBP PPI
09:30 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Survey
21:45 NZD Retail Sales
10:00 Greece to sell bills

Earnings

Before:
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
Home Depot (HD)
After:
Cisco (CSCO)


Wednesday, November 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 2.6%, prior 2.1%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 2.4%, prior 2.3%
08:30 Advance Retail sales – consensus -0.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Less Autos – consensus 0.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.9%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.6%
2:00 FOMC Minutes
11:00 Fed to buy $7b-$8b 3-year bills
11:30 US to sell 4-week bills, $25b 52-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Actual Foreign Capital Utilized
07:45 EUR French CPI
09:30 GBP Employment
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
10:30 Germany to sell EU5b 2-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
After
Netapp (NTAP)
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Staples (SPLS)


Thursday, November 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 370K, prior 355K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3154K, prior 3127K
08:30 Consumer Price Index – consensus 2.1%, prior 2.0%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.0%, prior 2.0%
08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus -7.00, prior -6.16
10:00 MBA Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures
10:00 Philly Fed – consensus 2.0, prior 5.7
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:30 EUR French GDP
07:00 EUR German GDP
09:00 EUR Italian GDP
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP
14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales
10:30 UK to sell GBP2b 40-year bonds

Earnings

Before:
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Target (TGT)
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Ross Stores (ROST)
After
Gap (GPS)
Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Dell (DELL)
Aruba Networks (ARUN)
Gamestop (GME)
Viacom (VIA)


Friday, November 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $91.4B
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – prior $90.0B
09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.4%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78.3%, prior 78.3%
09:15 Manufacturing Production – prior 0.2%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance

Earnings

No major reports scheduled

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca


No positions in stocks mentioned.

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