Trading the Presidential Election Results

By Todd Harrison  NOV 07, 2012 10:20 AM

One step at a time as we together find our way.



Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

Late yesterday afternoon, I did something that I rarely do: I juggled cats. No, no -- that was last Tuesday, sorry!  There's a lot going on these days -- sorry for the confusion; wait, I got it....

I shared a midday vibe from the Buzz & Banter on MV Proper because I felt it was an important column for those looking to snatch acorns along the path of maximum frustration.  Positioning into the Presidential Election, posted at 2:00 p.m. EST, chewed through the positive and negative dynamics in the marketplace and arrived at the following conclusion:

"My sense -- and it's just a sense -- is that odds favor a downdraft tomorrow.

"How much conviction do I have? Enough to share (all a man has is his name and his word) but not enough to slap bank on the table.

"With a Nor'easter on the way and a powerless house in the burbs, my focus needs to be on my family and my business -- in that order -- with my P&L a distant third."

This view was in part predicated on the following rationale, which was shared in real-time on yesterday's Buzz & Banter:

"If Obama wins, markets likely sell-off. If Romney wins, initial reaction will likely be higher. If the race isn't decided by tomorrow morning, markets will sell off. Given the almost 3-1 odds on Obama winning (72% probability on In-Trade), that would seemingly provide an advantage to the bears heading into tomorrow."

To be clear, this isn't a back-pat or a victory lap -- we don't roll that way in the 'Ville, and as shared above, I didn't make a downside bet despite my bearish inclinations.  The Minyanville Mission has always been to effect positive change through financial understanding, from the ABCs to the 401(k)s, and doing so through a vicarious learning process has been recognized as a legitimate educational experience.

But enough about that -- the key to longevity in this business is not to look (down and) back, but to look out (and up).

Per yesterday's second column, there were dueling technical patterns in play -- the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) was churning under resistance (S&P 1400 is the first support, and S&P 1380 is the BIG support), while the NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) was clinging to the 200-day like by daughter Ruby clings to her Ducky.


And, given that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the Most Important Stock in the World, the inability of the world's most loved stock to recapture it's 200-day provided a stealth tell.

Finally, and only because we've been talking about this for about a month, we should note that marijuana legalization passed in Colorado and Washington. I can't discuss specific names because they're too thin (perception is reality) but this furthers my belief that cannabis plays could provide the best risk-reward of any industry in the next decade.

Why? Four reasons: Increased tax revenue, lower crime rate, it adds jobs, and nobody on Wall Street covers these names. This isn't a trade, it's a long-term thesis, and the first such vibe I am comfy putting my name to in quite some time.

Lemme get this to you, more to come; please understand that with the nor'easter bearing down, and my family and home still without energy or heat, I gotta boogie back to the burbs midday before the Long Island Railroad shuts down, as is being rumored in the sticks.

Good luck today, and remember that profitability begins within!


Twitter: @todd_harrison

Position in select cannabis stocks.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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