Positioning Into the Presidential Election

By Todd Harrison  NOV 06, 2012 2:00 PM

See both sides before you make a bet.

 


MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

This morning I wrote in real-time on our Buzz & Banter that "My first blush inclination was to fade (read: sell) the opening bell, but I don't have the brass tacks to do that given the current risk reward."

There's 22 years of learned wisdom in that statement; sometimes the ability not to trade is as valuable as trading ability. The 2:1 positive breadth and the traction in the financials kept me in check and at the end of the day, discipline must always trump conviction.

Will this market hold or will this fold?

Good question; let's take a look.

The Hold Camp
The Fold Camp


Where Do I Net Out?

My sense -- and it's just a sense -- is that odds favor a downdraft tomorrow.

How much conviction do I have? Enough to share (all a man has is his name and his word) but not enough to slap bank on the table.

With a Nor'easter on the way and a powerless house in the burbs, my focus needs to be on my family and my business -- in that order -- with my P&L a distant third.

Good luck, and may peace be with you!

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

No positions in stocks mentioned.