Trading Radar: BOE, ECB, Jobs, and More

By Michael Sedacca  SEP 28, 2012 3:20 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.


MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Last month, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report showed a dramatic fall from 141K to 96K. This was below estimates of 130K and was released directly after a surprise upside beat for ADP Private Payrolls. However, due to the proximity to the FOMC's decision to announce QE3 during the next week, the downside pressure was muted. This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report should show a slight rise from 96K to 115K. Even so, unemployment is expected to rise to 8.2% from 8.1%. Last month's fall from 8.3% to 8.1% was due to a large number of citizens leaving the workforce.

In the rest of the world, Canada will report similar employment figures on Friday, and Europe will report on Monday. Additional manufacturing data is out from China and Europe early in the week as well.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will release their monthly rate decision on Thursday. Last month, the ECB announced a groundbreaking bond purchase program -- called Open Monetary Transactions, or OMT -- that boosted European markets. This month, it is not expected for anything else to be announced. But with the Spanish summit over the weekend, it is suspected that Spain may ask for an additional aid line from the EU, thus paving the way for additional bond purchases.

Key earnings reports include Monsanto (MON), Mosaic (MOS), Family Dollar (FDO), and Marriott (MAR).

Sunday, September 30.

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Leading Index
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook

Monday, October 1

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:58 Markit US PMI Final - consensus 51.5, prior 51.5
10:00 ISM Manufacturing - consensus 50.0, prior 49.6
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - consensus 55.5, prior 54.0
10:00 Construction Spending MoM - consensus 0.5%, prior -0.9%
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
07:15 CHF Retail Sales
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI
08:30 GBP PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
13:00 France to sell in bills
No major earnings

Tuesday, October 2

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:45 ISM New York - prior 51.4
17;00 Total Vehicle Sales - consensus 14.50M, prior 14.46M
17:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - consensus 11.40M, prior 11.54M
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
08:30 GBP PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI
21:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings
09:30 UK to sell GBP3.5b in 10-year notes


Mosaic (MOS) EPS $1.16

Wednesday, October 3

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change - consensu 150K, prior 201K
10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing Composite - consensus 53.4, prior 53.7

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
01:30 AUD Retail Sales
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales


Monsanto (MON) EPS -44c
Family Dollar (FDO) EPS 75c
Marriott International (MAR) EPS 40c
OCZ Tech (OCZ) EPS -13c

Thursday, October 4

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 370K, prior 359K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3300K, prior 3271K
10:00 Factory Orders - consensus -5.0%, prior 2.8%
2:00 FOMC Minutes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:15 CHF Industrial Production
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
08:30 Spain to sell 2, 3, and 5-year notes
09:00 France to sell 6, 10, and 30-year bonds


No major earnings

Friday, October 5
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - consensus 115K, prior 96K
08:30 Change in Private Payrolls - consensus 130K, prior 103K
08:30 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - consensus -5K, prior -15K
08:30 Unemployment Rate - consensus 8.2%, prior 8.1%
08:30 Average Hourly Earning MoM - consensus 0.2%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Underemployment Rate - prior 14.7%
3:00 Consumer Credit - consensus $7.25B, prior -$3.276B

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BOJ Rate Decision
01:00 JPY Leading Index
08:00 CHF KOF Institute Economic Forecast
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

Constellation Brands (STZ) EPS 54c

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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