Editor's note: To help investors profitably navigate the options market, Minyanville is launching "9 Weeks to Better Options Trading," an educational series aimed at increasing trader understanding of the nuts and bolts of options, with an emphasis on real-world applications. In this series, veteran options trader and author of OptionSmith, Steve Smith will demystify a range of topics from options pricing to trading strategies to special situations like earnings reports and takeovers.
1. Swinging for the Fences Ahead of Earnings
When people talk about trading options, the conversation usually turns to ultra-risky strategies. By far, the most common of these is buying call or put options ahead of an earnings number in the hopes of hitting a home run. The upside in being right about such an unpredictable event is a big fat profit.
The downside when you’re wrong? That'd be 100%. As in, the underlying stock gaps against you, the options are left worthless.
There is nothing wrong with making the occasional speculative bet, but you have to understand the risk involved and keep the position right-sized.
2. Failing to Understand Implied Volatility
Being wrong on a stock’s direction is clearly an easy way to lose money. But there’s a second, and perhaps even more frustrating way to lose money with options: failing to understand the intricacies of option pricing.
One of the biggest mistakes new options traders make is not taking into account implied volatility, which is a measure of the expectation or probability of a given size move within a given time frame. Put simply, implied volatility provides a gauge as to whether an option is relatively cheap or expensive based on past price action in the underlying stock, and it is among the most important components in option pricing.
For example, options on banks JPMorgan
(NYSE:JPM) or Goldman Sachs
(NYSE:GS) are relatively expensive, as the implied volatility for March options is running around 30% -- or about double the 16% historic, or real 20-day volatility. This can be explained by nervousness surrounding the big banks’ exposure to the economic crisis in Europe.
By comparison, Microsoft’s
(NASDAQ:MSFT) March options carry an implied volatility of just 19.5%, while the 20-day historic volatility is running at 21%, making the options relatively cheap.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard traders say “options don’t work” because they bought puts or calls ahead of earnings, were right on the direction of the stock post-earnings, but the option barely changed in price implied volatility declined post-earnings as is common after expected news events.
Therefore, in order to consistently make money trading options, one must attain a basic understanding of implied volatility. But have no fear – in the coming weeks
, I’ll be going over ways to both harness and profit from changes in implied volatility.
3. Failing to Understand Time Decay
Traders also commonly fail to realize that options are a wasting asset. One very important component in the price of an option is the time until expiration. So as time goes on, the value of that time decays, with a negative impact on the overall value of the option itself.
If you buy calls or puts outright, and the underlying stock moves in your direction at a slow pace, the option may not gain in value.
However, a basic understanding of option pricing and a grasp of a variety of trading strategies will allow you to offset the impact of time decay -- or even turn it to your advantage.
In future lessons
, we’ll be exploring strategies that will allow you to do so.
4. Ignoring the Power of Compounding Small Gains
Above, we referenced the risk in swinging for the fences with options. The less-sexy – but far more lucrative -- reality is that the best options traders grind out steady profits using a wide variety of strategies, looking to consistently earn 2% to 4% a month, with an occasional kicker from speculative bets.
Two percent per month doesn’t sound like a lot, but compounded over a year, it adds up to 27%. That’s more than three times the average historical return for the S&P 500
(INDEXSP:.INX). Stretch that monthly gain from 2% to 4%, and the annualized profit is on the order of 60%
The important takeaway here is not the idea of making 60% in a year, but rather the power of consistently hitting high-probability singles rather than swinging for low-probability home runs every time we step up to the plate.
Extreme risk-taking could mean that you’re up 100% one month -- and down 50% the next. You do that and you’re right back where you started, but with an ulcer and heart medication.
There is plenty of room for speculation with options, but to stay ahead of the game, you have to pick your spots wisely.
5. Failing to Diversify
Ideally, no single position should represent more than 5% of a portfolio. My OptionSmith portfolio
typically carries six to 10 positions at a time. These can run from complex, multi-strike hedged positions that have four to six months until expiration, to speculative plays based on unusual activity or an upcoming event that will be held for just a few days.
Why? Because again, I never want to get knocked out of the game on one trade, or allow a position to get so large that it could threaten gains elsewhere in the portfolio if things go south.
When people go broke trading options, it’s usually because they not only swung for the fences on an earnings play, but put far too much money into that single trade. Try OptionSmith today.
Where We Go From Here
Next week, we’ll be moving on to our next lesson, understanding implied volatility and time decay, which will give you a basic understanding of how options are priced, and how one can profitably navigate changes in those prices.
From there, we’ll move onto breaking down a variety of key trading strategies before ending with a piece on handling special situations like earnings reports and takeovers.
Here is a complete schedule for "9 Weeks to Better Options Trading":
Week 1: 5 Rookie Mistakes to Avoid Like the Plague
Week 2: Option Pricing Basics: Understanding Implied Volatility and Time Decay
Week 3: Trading Strategy: Calendar Spreads
Week 4: Trading Strategy: Butterfly Spreads
Week 5: Trading Strategy: Iron Condors
Week 6: Trading Strategy: Risk/Reversals
Week 7: Trading Strategy: Back Spreads
Week 8: Managing Risk
Week 9: Special Situations: Earnings Reports, Takeovers, and Extreme Market Moves
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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