|The Party With the Most to Lose This Fall is Microsoft|
Dana Blankenhorn - The Street SEP 04, 2012 2:00 PM
If Microsoft Windows 8 Phone Fails, Steve Ballmer will be Microsoft's version of Herbert Hoover.
The candidate who should be most nervous this fall is Microsoft
Starting with Wednesday's Nokia
The official launch of Windows 8 in October, which folks like TechNewsWorld are already writing about, is not nearly as important as the fate of Windows 8 Phone. That's because, as previously noted, the transition from "feature phones" to "smart phones" has been happening twice as fast as the Internet transition of the 1990s, 10 times faster than Microsoft's own rise with the PC in the 1980s.
We're late in that game, and the question is whether there is any room for a third player, no matter how insanely great it may be.
Microsoft's best hope is to knock Google's (GOOG)
The Ativ announcement comes just a week after Samsung lost to Apple
But this only works if Samsung, which is also Android's largest OEM, and Nokia, whose CEO bet his company on Microsoft Windows last year, can both succeed in the market.
To that end,TechNewsWorld reports that Microsoft will launch a $1 billion ad campaign over the next three months. To put that number in perspective, it's twice what the presidential campaign has cost so far, in terms of advertising, according to an NBC FirstRead story last month.
So there will indeed be a third party on the ballot this fall: The Microsoft party. You will be asked to vote for it with your wallet. As with other third parties, the aim must be to get out of the single-digits in market share, in order to be considered "viable."
Failure will not destroy Microsoft. It will relegate the company to a position similar to the one IBM
This will leave it vulnerable to attack by that same IBM, which has since used Linux and open source to unify its software environments and become a major player in the other area Microsoft must succeed in to survive, the cloud.
If Windows 8 Phone fails, Microsoft will truly be subject to a squeeze, from Apple on the consumer side and IBM on the business side, with Google pressing in on both sides. Ballmer's decade-long run as Microsoft CEO will have to be considered a failure. He would go down in corporate history as Microsoft's Herbert Hoover or, if you're a Republican, Microsoft's Jimmy Carter.
Windows 8 Phone had best not fail.
At the time of publication, Blankenhorn was long MSFT, IBM, GOOG, and AAPL.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.