Random Thoughts: Will Investors Sell the Greek News?

By Todd Harrison  FEB 09, 2012 10:00 AM

Musings from the front lines.

 


It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses.  Hit it!
--The Blues Brothers

I'm under the gun this morning as I've got a midmorning midtown meld and a high noon business lunch—and I've gotta file my amNY column before I skedaddle—so I'm gonna cut to the chase with some top-line vibes as we power up this Thursday grump.  In no particular order:

I enjoyed last night's Bloomberg Rewind co-host gig, in large part because the format allows for an intelligent discussion as opposed to other media outlets that ask, "What's wrong with Europe and how can we fix it...you have 17 seconds to do so—and we need a stock pick!  We'll post it to the 'Ville as soon as it's ready.

We talked tape, among other items, and I communicated that while I've traded from the long side since December 2011—individual stocks like Research in Motion (RIMM), where I've got a placeholder at present—I've been tapping the short side to see what kind of will the bulls have.  And while I got clipped last Friday and flattened into the weekend, I re-initiated partial short-side positions (25% exposure) in both the S&P and NDX.

When Matt Miller asked what it would take to establish a full position, I communicated that if the market spiked higher on a Greek resolution of their debt dilemma, I would likely unleash the hounds for a more sizable short-side stab.  Of course, we seemingly received resolution this morning and the tape is flattish, which has an entirely different set of implications as we find our way forward.

Matt also asked me about the depth of my perceived gut-check, if and when, and I told him, "Until the dip buyers, who have that style ingrained on their brain, get burned on a few attempts and no longer wanna buy the dips.  Of course, I could be wrong—I've never even been to Mt. Vesuvius—but that's what's inside my mind's eye as we tickle our way toward S&P 1360.

Other Snapshot Random Thoughts:
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Positions in SPX, NDX, RIMM

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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