Adobe Running Well -- But Should You Chase?

By Glenn Curtis  DEC 02, 2009 10:15 AM

There may be better opportunities.


So I went to Walmart last night, picked up a few strings of lights, and hung them all up. Like last year, I’ve got nothing on Clark Griswold, and odds are I won’t be attracting throngs of spectators. But it’s a decent display, if I do say so myself.

Asian stocks rose as we slumbered. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei were up 0.8% and 0.38%, respectively. However, European stocks were showing me some red this morning. And here in the US, we’re currently trading higher.

Here’s what I'm focused on this morning:

Adobe Systems (ADBE):
The shares had a heck of a run in yesterday’s session rising almost 4%. The reasons: a strong market and the fact that JMP Securities slapped an Outperform rating on it.

While it’s easy to get caught up in all the chatter, I don’t plan on getting sucked in anytime soon. While I think the shares could ultimately have some upside from current levels, right now I don’t feel like paying more than 20 times the 2010 estimate.

In short, there are better opportunities, although I'd revisit this idea if the shares were to pull back to high $20s or low $30s. Insiders, how about ponying up?

Dupont (DD):
Per the AP: “DuPont's finance chief on Tuesday reaffirmed the manufacturing conglomerate's outlook for 20 percent compound annual earnings growth for 2009 through 2012.”

Some thoughts:

1. Clearly this story isn’t all that sexy, however, the shares have been performing well, and I think a new high could be in the cards in the near-term given the outlook. But I'd still rather play the miser and pick it up on a pullback. .

2. Never mind that the company has been beating the pants off estimates the last few quarters and I think it's got a decent shot of doing so again.

3. There’s the dividend too, which some might consider the whipped cream on top of the ice cream float. Fossil (FOSL):
Justin Sharon points out in his article this morning that Jesup & Lamont slapped a Buy rating on the company. I guess it figures it will keep on ticking.

I think it's okay here, but I intend to keep it in the back of my mind that the stock has already had a heck of a sweet run and the company trades at about 16.8 times this year’s estimate, which isn’t something Ben Graham probably would have wrestled me over. 

In short, I’d much rather slap this one on my wrist on a pullback. That said, I do think it's got a shot of beating estimates in the December quarter.

AMR Corp (AMR)/UAL Corp (UAUA)
Justin Sharon also points out this morning in Upgrades & Downgrades: Airlines Take Flight, that “Morgan Stanley moves the airline space to Attractive on an improving industry risk/reward profile as liquidity concerns abate in coming quarters. AMR Corp and UAL Corp (each now Overweight from Equal-Weight) are among the opinion changes.”

I wouldn’t touch these guys with a 50-foot pole. The way I see it, fuel prices are still way too elevated, and the larger economy is still in a fragile state. Additionally, I don’t think vacations to Bora Bora are on the agenda for too many of us this holiday season, so I'm failing to see the upside.

Have a great day! Only two more days until Festivus!

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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