|Buy the Dip or Sink the Ship?|
By Todd Harrison SEP 24, 2009 11:40 AM
Taking the pulse of the early morning market.
Some day we'll look back at this and it will all seem funny but for now, it's simply busy in the Hallowed Halls of MVHQ. If I told you I had a slated schedule for 11AM (video), 12PM (office space), 2PM (conference call), 4PM (documentary segment on the Federal Reserve), 5PM (conference call) and 6PM (business dinner), would you take this content as intended (communication) or have mercy, mercy on me (and point me in the direction of four tickets for the Giants-Raiders on October 11th)?
Either way and anyway, let's get this party started right.
Following yesterday's pop & drop, a probe lower was intuitive given this morning's higher opening. Given we've discussed Shallow Hal for almost a month, it's safe to say the "buy the dip" mentality isn't just ingrained in the mainstream mindset, it's seemingly set in stone.
That, coupled with the widespread perception of a quarter-end mark-up, makes this slope particularly slippy. Nobody will “care” on the first, second or perhaps third dip but thereafter, should it come to pass, we’ll see the weak hands get shaken from the tape.
For my part, while I reduced exposure as a function of discipline (always honest), I continued to trade 'em with a negative bias as I get back to basics and re-find my feel. A few thoughts in that regard, other than a broken clock is right twice a day.
First, my sense has been that there will be better entry levels for Hoofy and exit strategies for Boo, should either be so inclined. Whether that's the heretofore 3% reversal (in the last three trading hours) or something more profound remains to be seen. Given the “first move is the false move following the FOMC,” I’ve got some inventory with which to operate.
Second, we've finally gotten a market to trade, as opposed to the steady one-way grind. That's a blessing or a curse, depending on your stylistic approach but I embrace the "sell the rips to buy the dips" methodology. Hit it, quit it, sit it, with defined risk and trailing stops.
Trading, in that regard, is very much like a diet. Everyone trips at times, but we must never fall.
Finally, everyone and their sister, their brother Darol and their other brother Darol is keying off the credit markets and looking for an echo bubble. The uniformity of opinion is perhaps the single largest red flag so I continue to view the dew through the lens of risk management over reward chasing and opportunities being made up easier than losses.
There are some green beans in the Red Sea this morning, including JP Morgan (JPM) and Citi (C), the consumer non-durables and select tech, such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Qualcomm (QCOM).
With the tape this extended, however, market internals 3:1 negative and the dollar 90 bips higher (remember, bearish sentiment is extreme for the greenback), Boo has the ball for the time being.
I'm operating accordingly with an eye towards hitting for average not power. Remember, you can trade 'em seven ways till Sunday as long as you're disciplined.
As always, I hope this finds you well.