Randoms: Running to Stand Still

By Todd Harrison  MAR 11, 2009 11:25 AM

The market fights to regain it's balance.

 


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also A Thirst for the Truth.


Minyan Mailbag: SPX 666 last Friday likely was not our bottom - 9:35 am


Toddo,

Just wanted to pass on a tidbit from a research note I received regarding Friday’s S&P 500 intraday low of 666. Basically, the historical track record of Friday bottoms hasn’t been very good. And based on the past 21 bear market lows, dating all the way back to 1929, there have been only two occurrences on Fridays, while twelve have occurred on Tuesday or Thursday. In fact, the note goes on to say that the most likely day for a climactic bottom is a Thursday in either October or March (44% probability).

--Minyan Hayden P

MH,

Great point! The twist, I suppose, is the notion of a trading low vs. a market bottom. I would be very surprised if 'that' was 'the' low (absent a significant dollar debasement) but we'll play the hand we've been dealt.

For me, I came in flat in my trading account after selling the merchandise added last week (when it felt very wrong) and I wanna keep my risk leash tight into the weekend. In my long-term account, I'm still leaning against S&P 600 for 25% deployment and if we don't get there--and my greatest cost is opportunity--so be it.

Capital preservation remains a necessary precursor to wealth accumulation.

--Toddo


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Position in USO

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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