Random Thoughts: Is The Big One Coming?

Todd Harrison
  SEP 09, 2008 1:15 PM

Market is running out of quick fixes.

 


The market is rumbling and absent the implicit Government guarantee—which differs from the explicit guarantee we saw on Sundaythe question is simple:

Who will step in and save the day?

We've long discussed the laws of diminishing ammunition, offering that the last bullet would be pointed inward.

Using another analogy, leaks are springing all over the financial dam and there are only so many fingers to plug those holes, particularly after two fingers—the middle one on each hand—were used on Sunday.

Faith in the system--credibility, psychology, perception, social mood and risk appetite--is paramount here.

We've been watching it closely for a long time but the shelf life has seemingly shortened.

I'm not smart enough to know if this is the big one or simply a case of Turnaround Tuesday shaking the tape.

What I will say—and as we have said is that credit problems persist, debt needs to be destroyed and equity markets aren’t pricing in that risk.

Either the former improves in time to absorb the year-end issuance or we're in for a harsh comeuppance that will remind the world that profiting is a privilege rather than a right.

Discipline over conviction as we find our way.

Random Thoughts:
 


R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.