Get Ready For a Massive Move

By Todd Harrison  FEB 21, 2008 9:35 AM

We'll all remember the 2008 tape.

 


Good morning and welcome back to the flickering pack. On the heels of a fantastic night of ketchup with MV Professor Adam Katz and Happy Hour Honcho Cody Willard, I slink to the drink for another run of fun. The market waits for no one and nothing, we know, condiments included.

Out or respect for time—both yours and mine—I’m gonna tee it up and toss it out there. These are historic times and we’ll one day sit around a campfire telling stories about the 2008 tape.

When that happens, we’ll have the benefit of hindsight. Right now, we need the gift of foresight.

Strap Yourself in Goose!

My greatest strength is knowing what I don’t know. Stay humble, I’ve learned, or the market will do it for you.

What I do know is this: There is a massive disconnect right now between the credit markets and the equity space. 

If credit can catch a bid and spreads narrow, we’ll see a fierce upside move that will rival anything in recent memory.

If credit doesn’t improve—or worse, continues to deteriorate—the DJIA could shave 1000-1500 points before most folks know what hits them.

The cynic would say “Great—you’re saying we’ll either rally or sell-off, that’s great value added!” 

I would counter that the principal purpose of a trader—and by extension, my role in Minyanville—is to identify, measure and communicate risk. 

The rubber band is stretched about as far as it can go. If it snaps back, it’ll poke Boo in the eye. If I snaps period, supply will fall from the sky. 

See both sides, Minyans, and position yourself accordingly.

Random Thoughts


R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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