Freaky Friday Potpourri: Financial Growth Hormones

Todd Harrison  Feb 15, 2008 9:40 am

Freaky Friday Potpourri: Financial Growth Hormones
 
Monetary stimuli gets injected into the market.
 

 


Vibes from my sidebar with Mr. Practical yesterday:

Mr. Practical: There are things going on in the derivative market that you wouldn't believe. Asian traders are trying to get out of risk and they're paying absurd prices. 

Toddo: I'm not surprised although I would expect stateside volatility (VXO) to reflect a bit more concern.

Mr. Practical: The reason is management. Operation mode is to now unwind at any cost the risk they got themselves into and "made money" with all those years. Of course, the money wasn't real it was just mismarked collateral. When you remark it, that money magically disappears. This is deflation: the destruction and contraction of debt.

Toddo: On a scale of 1-10, what are your odds that we enter into a 1970’s style environment? What about a 1930’s environment?

Mr. Practical: An “8,” and a  “4,” respectively.

Toddo: Thanks P.

Answers I Really Wanna Know…
 


Minyan Mailbags

Team Minyan,

I tried to sell $150,000.00 of Nuveen 7 day paper and was informed by my broker that she could not sell it because there weren't enough bidders. I asked her what she meant and she replied that all we can do is to try again next Wednesday.

I have no idea if I will be able to sell it next week or not. I asked her what would happen if I had to have this money now and she had no answer. If I had not tried to sell this product, I would have never known there was a problem. I just wonder how many people like me are clueless about this.

-Nervous Minyan Ed

NME-

I don’t “know” the particulars, obviously, but if I were you, I would get a manager on the phone pronto and get to the bottom of this.

Good luck,
Toddo


Toddo,

I took your advice and talked to a higher up, the news was not great. They had a meeting this week as Nuveen auctions just started failing. I could have got it out a week or two ago, so he says. He told me it could be worse as some people park their money there and use it to pay margin. They are, in his words, “screwed.” He said the principle is safe because it is considered ‘preferred’ and comes before Nuveen closed end funds. I will just have to be patient as there is nothing they can do.

I asked him if other people were having a problem with this explanation and he said that there is certainly is a lack of confidence and they are having a hard time explaining that it is not their fault. He also said people have asked to borrow against their assets but they cannot even do that. He said I will continue to get my interest every week and he will continue to submit them for auction every Wednesday, but he’s not optimistic of a quick solution.

Boy, who would have ever thought investing in fixed income would be harder than trading stocks?

-Now Very Scared Minyan Ed


Toddo,

I hope you're having a fine day. Quick question about contra hour. Do you give it more credence when the there's a countertrend turn that occurs around 2pm give or take?

Thanks kindly,
Minyan Dennis

MD,

As a general rule of thumb, yes. All day action that has a distinct 'counter-trend' move from 2pm-3pm EST typically plays out this pattern. We've spoken about this seemingly non-sensical movement for many years and while I've yet to figure out "why," I'm always conscious that it exists at some level.

Toddo


R.P.

Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (2) See All Comments »
02-15-2008, 9:58 am
Looks llike in addition to the flag forming on the daily, we have a megaphone on the monthly...and we know how those go!
Read More
02-15-2008, 10:01 am
maybe a pennant on the weekly!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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