Five Things: Predicting the Recession's End

Kevin Depew  Jun 09, 2009 10:55 am

Five Things: Predicting the Recession's End
 
Also, we must stimulate the stimulus; new American savers; and much more.
 

5. News & Weirdness

High Court Stymies Quick Sale of Chrysler  - WSJ
If the court decides to hear an appeal, the sale of Chrysler to Fiat could be delayed for months, the rescue collapse.

Business Mortgage Defaults In US Set to Rise - FT
"Defaults on US commercial mortgages could hit 4.1 per cent by the end of the second quarter, their highest level since the 1992 recession."

More Firms Cut Pay to Save Jobs
- WSJ
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas last week reported that more than half of human-resource executives surveyed last month said their companies had either cut or frozen salaries to cut costs.

To Sustain iPhone, Apple Halves Price
- WSJ
Apple
(AAPL) is now focused on getting as many iPhone users as it can now, despite the cost. What year is this, 1999?

In Recession Specials, Small Firms Revise Pricing - WSJ
Speaking of consumption not collapsing, but shifting, this piece illustrates how it is possible to cater to differing tastes profitably even as doing so creates deflationary pressures elsewhere.

How to Fix Financial Television - Barry Ritholtz
We are all herding creatures. We can't help it. And while I agree with Barry's list, it reads like an outline of how social mood's shifting priorities values things such as quietude, reflection, risk aversion, a slowing of velocity and reduction in noise over high-frequency, high-velocity, speed and noise that characterized the bullish peak in social mood we're in the process of leaving. All of this is deflationary in both an economic and media sense.

Highlights:

1. Stop Yelling. Stop interrupting. Stop Talking Over Each Other
3.   S - L - O - W    D - O - W - N
4.  Risk
6. Separate the Signal from the Noise
14. Stop the Bull/Bear Debate
16. Respect the Audience
64 of 67 (96%) found this helpful
Rate this article:  (67 Votes)
Comments (30) See All Comments »
06-09-2009, 7:27 pm
How can the government be more rsponsible than the people that vote for it? Most people I know are never really expecting to pay off their debts before they die. The more debt you die with the smarter you are, right?

Americans got
Read More
06-09-2009, 8:47 pm
I have to defer to the great Yogi Berra--It aint over til its over.Good luck out there,JT
Read More
06-09-2009, 11:42 pm
I think the reasoning in point #3 is a bit misleading. If I have a disposable (i.e., after-tax) income of $100k and owe $130k, say on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5%, I can certainly make my mortgage payments (somewhere around $5k per year) and
Read More
06-12-2009, 10:07 am
I also think point #3 is lacking a lot of disclosure. I would like to see Kevin's backup for his claim. James brings up a good point between the difference of long term debt to short term debt. When I bought my first house in late 70's I
Read More
06-28-2009, 12:06 pm
Unfortunately, true.
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert