Confidence In the Face of the Bear

Vitaliy Katsenelson  Oct 23, 2008 11:00 am

Confidence In the Face of the Bear
 
Remember your ups despite market lows.
 

 
First off, remind yourself that you’re not as dumb as your portfolio makes you feel. You have bought a stock (once or twice) that made you money. Here’s what I do-- I pull out a chart of a stock on which I made a boatload of money, or the one I sold (for the right reasons) before it declined. I do this with pleasure trying to relive my "smart days."

We all have these stocks, the ones we nailed. We tend to forget about them during the bear market. But I suggest you remember them now, when you feel lonely and miserable. That way you'll have more of those names to remember in the future.

Remember, cash will not bring the pleasure of victory in the long-run. The cyclical bull market is still there; it’s just hiding under the ugly sentiment of the cyclical bear market. Believe me, it’s just a matter of time before it shows its happy face.

In the bear market, it’s easy to forget about buying. Selling is an easier decision to make. Every time you buy a stock you look dumb because it usually goes down afterward. I recently bought couple of incredibly cheap stocks. Of course they declined, and I don’t feel smart about those buys right now.

However, a while back, I analyzed those companies, figured out what they were worth, determined an appropriate margin of safety and got my buy prices. Stocks declined, but fundamentals haven’t changed. So I bought these stocks.

You can’t worry about marking the "bottom" in every buy. My objective isn’t to buy at the "bottom" and sell at the "top." My objective is to buy a great company when it’s cheap and to sell it when it’s fairly valued! I suggest you do the same. Will Roger’s advice is great, but unfortunately I’ve yet to meet a human being who figured out how to apply it in real life. No, you are not as dumb as bear markets make you feel.
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Comments (4) See All Comments »
10-23-2008, 11:44 am
In cash I am until after the 4th quarter earnings results are in and the forecasts for the 1st quarter earnings are announced.

The election will be over, the pols will have laid out their plans and got somewhat organized for the new Cong
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10-23-2008, 8:48 pm
The market is herd behavior. The only thinking going on is fearful groupthink. Only disciplined cold blooded thinking will work.

Remember that "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."


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10-25-2008, 12:41 pm
For me, the one good thing that has come out of the recent mariket down turn is, every morning about 8:30, (mon-fri) I can count on a regular BM. I chuckled as I read your article and then promptly left for the peace and serenity of my throne.
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10-25-2008, 2:06 pm

They are the financial analysts, the commentators, the professors, the CEO's and the traders. They went to the same schools, read the same books, have the same life experiences and ideologies and assume their knowledge and observations
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