The Hump Day Fray: Can the Contagion Coagulate?-Minyanville

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The Hump Day Fray: Can the Contagion Coagulate?

Todd Harrison Sep 10, 2008 9:30 am

The Hump Day Fray: Can the Contagion Coagulate?


		Cumulative imbalances persist.

You Hear that Elizabeth? I’m Coming to Join you Honey!

Yesterday, I asked the question: “Is The Big One Coming?”

It spoke to the springing leaks in the financial dike, the bottom of the Washington gunpowder barrel, the VXO trading with a two-handle (well below previous fear fulcrums) and, perhaps most important, social mood and risk appetite.

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Those last points will be put on parade as the September debt issuance comes to market. The dynamic and dichotomy remains in place—either credit has to improve or stocks will swoon.

We can’t note that enough.

Few things in the market are ever black and white—or green and red, as the case may be—but this is seemingly one of them.

Risk management over reward chasing, discipline over conviction and debt reduction, as a function of choice rather than need.

Some Random Thoughts

How quickly can markets and moods shift? In a New York Minute, my friends, which seems particularly apropos right about now.
I digested some Campbell Soup (CPB) calls yesterday but the market was pretty thin. Ironic, given the "Chunky" persona of the brand and risky in front of today’s earnings.
Pep told me the USO was on a TD-sequential "buy" late yesterday, which was fine by me.
Someone once told me to never let an opinion get in the way of making money.
My "opinion" is big picture deflation but, just as the short side seemed counter-intuitive during the ramp higher, I'm playing for a crude bounce as perception toggles towards reality.
Remember, 3:30 EST is the double-edged sword when redemptions kick in and buy-backs stop. Keep that in mind as we edge through the grind.
Check out the Utes—My Cousin Vinny can't be liking them right now.
World, hold on!

Answers I Really Wanna Know…

Are there more bears at crude par ($100) than there were bulls at crude $145?
What’s wrong with pampering the mini-Minyans in our midst with a little chic comfort?
How long until we start hearing "emergency rate cut" rumors?
Will anybody care?
If I took a Fannie Flier at 0.70 (I did), would I punt the stock at a buck? (I did.)
Y’all see the importance of Apple (AAPL) $150?
What happened to the "lower crude is equity positive" crowd?
What, pray tell, will the last hour bring?
Is someone at Goldman (GS) getting a call from someone in Washington about something like Lehman (LEH)?
I mean, isn't there precedence?
Bank of America (BAC) for Countrywide?
JP Morgan (JPM) for Bear Stearns?
Our kids for Fannie and Freddie?
What’s THE ANSWER for housing?
Have you locked your spot for the MV holiday trot?
Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)

R.P.


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Dean Simmons

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09-10-2008, 9:45 am
"The bottom is when deals can't get done." If no one (Hello Granny) is willing to buy part of Lehman Bros., that might mark a bottom. To quote the extremely quotable W.L.S.C, it might be the end of the beginning. Read More

Jeff Burke

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09-10-2008, 11:39 am
Bless you, Toddo! I do feel badly that folks' retirements are getting a bad haircut, people who didn't make bad mortgage decisions are being evicted, and there are plenty of people who had nothing to do with this credit disater who Read More


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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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