Back Off the Dollar-Stock Inverse Correlation

Jeff Macke  Nov 02, 2009 11:45 am

Back Off the Dollar-Stock Inverse Correlation
 
Getting at least partial gains is the only logical strategy.
 

 

Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.


Greetings from New York, where not one person from Philly has thanked me for suggesting they brace themselves for bitter disappointment prior to the World Series. Here I am, all dedicated to serving and helping, and those ingrates just swear at me. After the Pedro experiment, there are rumors that Sandy Koufax may start tonight for the Phillies. Like Pedro, Sandy is well-rested and intimidating. And old.


For the market’s part, this “Dollar Inverse Correlation with Stocks” is going to end in tears. Running hell-bent for leather in and out of stocks based on fractional dollar moves isn’t a game for the inexperienced or faint of heart. I’m scaling back my negative S&P bet by trimming shares of the SDS ETF as we drop. In this tape, when you happen upon a winning position, you have to book at least partial gains. Honestly, it’s the only logical strategy in a world gone mad.

In slightly related news:
 

  • Ford (F) posts a gain, which is shocking until you consider that it's competing against the government even as it benefits from the same “stimulus” programs. For my money, I’m sticking with my newly Chinese Hummer until DC’s finest runs a “trade in your car for any other car, even money, no questions asked” program. I’m staying well and truly in the passing lane on chasing or in any way touching Ford.

  • CIT (CIT) goes bankrupt. What does it mean in the real world? Well, the taxpayers and Treasury will get nothing, which is more or less exactly why I don’t like contributing money for the Treasury to throw away on companies like CIT. If the British Empire wasn’t too big to fail, do you honestly think our mighty banks and insurers can’t lose?

  • What’s my stop on the SDS position? $40, give or take.

  • One workday into November and the price wars for Christmas are officially here. Wal-Mart (WMT), which broke the retail “code” by going with massive price cuts prior to Thanksgiving a few years ago, started rabble-rousing by announcing an intention to “have the lowest toy prices this year”. While specifics were unavailable, the guess here is that the plan involves both squeezing the suppliers and selling really cheap toys, both in terms of price and quality.

  • The move obviously impacts private Toys R Us and Target (TGT). The former is much better as a private firm and Target remains a nicer place to shop in general. And that better be common knowledge because Target just fired 85 employees in the marketing division.



Register For Minyanville's Holiday Festivus '09 Here
28 of 30 (93%) found this helpful
Rate this article:  (30 Votes)
Comments (2) See All Comments »
11-02-2009, 10:41 pm
Jeff,
Great discussion.
Have you considered putting a buy stop on SDS? Sort of like buckling your seat belt in an airplane in case you hit an air pocket. You know those rare occurrences when the stewardess ends up on the ceiling.

Read More
11-05-2009, 12:01 pm
Mr. Bacan, I didn't buckle in at all but rather chucked the long completely out the window. 1050 was the goal and became my stop. We may close below or above that today. Another broken rally would be a knee-capper for Bulls but it's ha
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
Position in SDS

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
SPX »RIMM »AMZN »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert