The second choice in the morning line is Colonel John, a California invader who has only run to date on synthetic surfaces. There is a big difference between synthetic surfaces and dirt. Do we really want to accept a low price on a horse trying a mile-and-a-quarter and dirt for the first time in a 20-horse field?

Meanwhile, according to the Ragozin Sheet performance figures, there are 15 other horses in the race faster than Colonel John. He is a tremendous underlay.

The next tier of horses are more closely bunched, but I see four that should be attractive in price and capable of springing the upset. Trainer Todd Pletcher, despite his success in virtually all other aspects of the game, has yet to win the Kentucky Derby with 19 starters. This year he has two, Cowboy Cal and Monba. Of those two, Monba, the winner of the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago, looks the best. Also, note that he won an allowance race impressively at Churchill in November at a mile.

The second horse that interests me is Denis of Cork, who ran a disappointing fifth in the Illinois Derby last out. He too has a win at Churchill where he broke his maiden impressively on the same day as Monba's Churchill win.

Z Humor is a horse trained by Bill Mott who has had some awkward races but seems to be maturing in time to deliver a peak performance on Derby Day.

Finally, Court Vision, though slower than the top tier of contenders, is among the few horses truly bred for the classic mile-and-a-quarter distance. If, big if, Big Brown fails to fire, he may find that his stamina is more important than raw speed in the final two furlongs of this race.

The final four:

  MONBA 15-1

 DENIS OF CORK 20-1

  Z HUMOR 30-1

  COURT VISION 20-1

Good luck.

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