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Things I'm Watching into the Close - Todd Harrison - 3:41 PM
 

• This Paul Krugman video, which is somewhat long but generally interesting. 
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  Quote, Unquote: Biased Credit Rating Agencies?
  Airlines: People Won't Fly, So We'll Raise Fees
  Trading Radar: GDP Highlights a Thin Week
  California Oversteps with HDTV Regulations
  Goldman, Beaten But Unbowed
  

  Trading Radar: GDP Highlights a Thin Week
  Geithner Faces Heat, But the Recession Continues
  The Great Credit Crunch Is Deepening
  Oil Pipelines Strike Up Geopolitical Strife
  Carry Trade Has Created Asset Bubbles
  
  
  
• Citigroup, which began acting heavy right after I closed out my short.  $30 remains the level of lore in that regard.
  
  
• The financials as I wonder to myself if "as goes the piggies, so goes the poke" will kick in (they don't care about pages on the calendar, mind you).
  
  
• The clock, which is now moving backwards.
  
  
• My list of year-end to do's, which is amazingly shrinking towards manageable proportions.
  
  
• The S&P.  Old habits are hard to break.
  
  
• Old pictures of Television's JeffMacke®.  What's with the midget?
  
  
• BIDU $400 and Apple $200 as any migration from those strikes could be telling.
  
  
• The VXO, 'cause it's a troubled teen.
  
  
• Minyanland, as it's long overdue.
  
  
• YOU!  I'm watching YOU, Fokker!

Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and I'll see y'all in the ayem.

R.P.

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Thinkin' About MRV - Sean Udall - 1:37 PM

MRV Communications (MRVC) announced the long waited IPO of its Luminent division. Shares are spiking higher today on the news after trading very poorly over the last couple months, falling over 50% off October highs. This news has me thinking about a few things:

1. This seems to confirm the continuing strength of Verizon's (VZ) Fios platform (Luminent supplies key component sfor this).

2. What ramification does this deal have to other names in this space. Opnext (OPXT) seems to be getting some pin action on this news.

3. EMCORE's (EMKR) recent announcement to buy some of Intel's (INTC) optical telecom assets is something I may need to dig a little deeper into.

4. I should have never sold EMKR!

5. Pricing power in optical components has been an issue for years. Is capacity finally getting soaked up and have enough mergers taken place to finally bring price stability into this space?

6. Merriman has been bullish on this group of stocks for some time. Were they early instead of wrong?

7. Finisar (FNSR) still looks very cheap here on many metrics, I suspect this deal will translate to some positive pin action for them after year-end.

Position in OPXT, FNSR

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Lunchtime With Q - Quint Tatro - 12:25 PM

As we head into the lunch hour there is a tale of two tapes today. Underneath the mood is giddy as momentum players are out in force driving up anything that has shown relative strength over the last few weeks. If you caught some movers from any previous mentions, make sure you take some gains and make it real. It is fun to watch stocks go up, but selling and locking in some gains makes the money real.

The Terra Nitrogen (TNH) I added on Monday is catching a bid this morning and doing so on decent volume. I like the setup here quite a bit as it tries to say goodbye to a multi-month trend line. I suspect if it can close well, the run many have some legs here into the New Year.

Traders also seem to be finding TiVo (TIVO) although it is a relatively slow mover for a small stock. For some reason I don’t feel comfortable holding too much of this one overnight so as we approach the bell, I’ll be paring back to a token amount.

In the high momentum world of Chinese stocks I started Yucheng Technologies (YTEC) as a chart play that is quite attractive. I have been watching this fallen favorite for some time and today it seems to be perking its head above the 50 day moving average as well as the recent trend line from the October highs. This is a very thin stock so I have started with an extra small position with a stop at today’s low. If it can muster up some volume into the afternoon, I’ll add and take it all home over night. This one could be a mover if it is found and worth keeping on your radar.

Enjoy your lunch!

Position in TNH, TIVO, YTEC

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Reserves Aplenty - Ryan Krueger - 10:43 AM

I am beginning to wonder just how much sense it makes to assume that crude oil rolls over in line with slowing growth. Although lots of folks I greatly respect are in this camp, to me, the U.S. slowdown explains the excess supply of natural gas (a domestic measurement) but may not put nearly as much of a dent in a barrel of oil as many would think. 

Oil is being consumed in staggering numbers by the producing nations, while most are still relying on consuming nations to explain triple digit prices. I believe we’re about to change the eye level on what we’ve been staring at on the price of crude, and I don’t think it’s lower.

One way my firm has been adding in the sector which I’ve buzzed about for a few months has been Peabody Energy (BTU). Higher crude prices could put pressure on many nations to start burning other forms of cheaper energy since many use crude to fire electric plants. Consider, that according to BTU, the energy contained in it's proven and probable reserves exceeds the energy content of the proven reserves of the world’s largest oil and gas company, all the proven oil reserves of the Continental U.S., the proven natural gas reserves of the U.S., and the proven coal reserves of more than 150 nations in the world.

Position in BTU


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