FedEx Corp (FDX):
 I don’t think the stock will be delivering big gains today. Check out the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release.

Excluding charges, it earned $0.64, which is actually way ahead of the $0.51 estimate that was out there. However, it delivered (get it?) just north of $7.85 billion in revenue, which was way shy of the more than $8.3 billion analysts had been looking for.

On top of that, the following line in the release caught my eye: “FedEx projects earnings to be $0.30 to $0.45 per diluted share in the first quarter, compared to $1.23 per diluted share a year ago. This outlook assumes current fuel prices and a stable economic environment.”
The issue here is that the Street is at $0.68.

Some thoughts:

1. With the market acting a little funky over the last few sessions, I imagine any fence-sitters could bail on today’s news.

2. I can picture sell-siders with their spreadsheet models open this morning, scratching their heads and trying to figure out what to ratchet their estimates down to.

3. Is the estimate for 2010 doable? It’s currently $3.29.

4.  Even if it's doable, it means the company trades at a not-so-cheap 15.6 times that estimate.

5. Long-term, I think this stock does make a big comeback. If it gets a real smack and comes down to the $40s, I want to revisit this idea. Totally dismissing these guys as a lost cause would be a mistake.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG):
 Not the sexiest business on the face of the earth, I’ll admit. But there was some news out this morning that deserves a look.

Check out this offering in the release: “The Company said it expects adjusted earnings for fiscal 2009 to be in a range of $2.35 to $2.45 per share.”

That’s actually good news. Analysts are at $2.37, so there could be some upside potential there.

There are some other things to like as well:

1. Scotts has a fantastic name, and as consumers start spending again, they're going to drop coin on things in and around their house. I think Scotts -- which is known for its fertilizer and lawn-care stuff -- will benefit from this.

2. The shares are trading near their 52-week high. If it can punch through the high, it could go to the mid $40s.

3. It trades at a very reasonable 12.8 times the current 2010 estimate.

4. It even sports a small dividend.

Have a great day!