Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks Jeff Macke Jul 13, 2009 12:10 pm |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
Does it seem loony to travel to the sultry Caribbean at the end of June? On the surface, yes. So is driving a $95,000 sports car, owning a bachelor pad in the Hamptons, and driving an SUV big enough to hold your other SUV. In good times, lunatic debauchery is the point of working 70 hours a week jockeying stocks. In bad times, saving is hip.As far as visiting the Caribbean in the off-season goes, the East Coast has had 5 times the number of lousy, rainy, grim days as it has sunny ones so far this year. According to the NY Times, NYC had twice as much rain in June as it does on average. Sadly, I can’t even go to Eddie Bauer (EBHIQ) and buy cool outerwear to protect myself from the deluge. Eddie has great prices, but the return policy gives me pause -- as does the “Everything Must Go!” feel.
I needed a break in the worst way, and it was either Atlantic City -- with its felt jumpsuits and gold chains and all their implications -- or the actual Atlantic -- with its own genuine natives but top-flight service. Had I been allowed to bet my own decision (which is how first SEC Chairman Joe Kennedy built his first fortune, as I understand it) it wouldn’t have been close. The Mackes were gathering their passports and heading south.
Of course, I can’t take a full conventional vacation. I can’t relax. That’s not a boast, not braggadocio -- and frankly nothing to be proud of. It’s closer to a form of obsessive-compulsive disorder. Regardless, I see stock buys and sells everywhere I go. I run odds for outcomes on everything, from check-out times (it’s about the number of coupons and seniors, not the number of customers) to whether or not I should let my kids beat me at Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii games -- generally not an issue since they usually beat me whether I like it or not.
As a mental tick, it's not exactly productive. But setting silly markets and then seeing whether I'd have won or lost has its uses.
For instance, the questions every casino visit raises are these: Can I make more money trading off what I find on my trip than the MIT brats who 'broke Vegas' by counting cards? At the very least, can I find a trade that pays for my trip? Every trip I make to a casino, I'm obsessed with paying for the trip -- either at the tables or with a trade -- inside of 30 days. It’s in my head, on the tip of my tongue, and all but pouring out my nose -- to the point that it’s white noise to Mrs. Jeffmacke (as is most of what I say).
Because I see possible trades anywhere and everywhere I go, a casino is for me what the Library of Congress is for a researcher: Bliss. (And with free drinks and oxygen pumped into the building.)The MIT kids were suckers. The risk-reward of cheating at cards is simply terrible; an arrest and/or beating on the downside versus a pay-off of a few grand, taxed to the hilt. I couldn’t care less if a 17-year-old in a fake mustache makes $5,000. I’m looking for the big game: Is real spending happening at a greater rate than the market believes?
To demonstrate the value of the exercise, from late April to early May I shared with Minyanville readers long trades in Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn (WYNN), and MGM (MGM) that more or less paid for this summer of partially engaged bliss. (See the post titled Macau Losing Bet.) I made enough to pay a kid to take my MCAT, then write my way into medical school. Card-counting types, go play Dungeons and Dragons -- we’re playing a grown-up game here.
The stakes are high. Patience is a must. Pay attention -- here are the rules:
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| add rss feed | free article alerts |
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides


















