Why Gold Could Still Triple From Here Josh Lipton Nov 04, 2009 3:30 pm |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
I have seen many people debate whether gold is a bet on inflation or deflation. As I see it, it is neither. Gold does well when monetary and fiscal policies are poor and does poorly when they appear sensible. Gold did very well during the Great Depression when FDR debased the currency. It did well again in the money printing 1970s, but collapsed in response to Paul Volcker’s austerity. It ultimately made a bottom around 2001 when the excitement about our future budget surpluses peaked.
Einhorn added, “Prospectively, gold should do fine unless our leaders implement much greater fiscal and monetary restraint than appears likely. Of course, gold should do very well if there is a sovereign debt default or currency crisis.”
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, also continues to favor gold. The fact that the yellow metal continues to surge higher -- even with ongoing deflationary developments -- suggests that other factors are driving bullion to new bullish heights, he says.
“It’s called scarcity of supply relative to fiat currency,” Rosenberg argues.
The strategist wrote today in a research note that he thinks gold can at least double if not triple from here.
“The cup is still half full -- and still can be filled with gold eagle coins,” he said.
For investment advice about how to play gold, we checked in briefly with Curt Hesler, the longtime editor of the Professional Timing Service newsletter.Hesler says there's no doubt that long-term gold will reach at least $1600. However, he thinks the near term is still a bit “dicey.” The veteran says he’ll get more excited about buying gold at $950 to $960.
In terms of the mining shares, Hesler has been patiently waiting for chances to pounce. Recently, he found a window of opportunity, and bought Kinross (KGC) and Agnico-Eagle (AEM).
We also asked Dr. Scott Nystrom, editor of the Gold Stock Strategist newsletter, for some help.
He thinks gold is going higher, hitting $1200 next year. However, he’s quick to add that it’s now possible we experience a correction in the short term.
“I would hold off on buying gold here, but I would go to gold stocks, which are lagging,” Nystrom says. “For conservative investors, look at Barrick, Newmont Mining (NEM), Yamana and Eldorado Gold (EGO).”
He adds, “If you want a solid junior, look at Jaguar Mining (JAG).”
Minyanville's portfolio is beating S&P 500 by 30% - 14 day FREE access to FlexFolio
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| add rss feed | free article alerts |
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides


















