Four Ways to Protect Yourself from Inflation Keith Fitz-Gerald Jun 24, 2009 10:50 am |
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Right now, there’s more than $9.5 trillion in cash on the sidelines -- or more than twice the amount of money currently invested in stock mutual funds, according to MoneyNet.inc and the Federal Reserve. Private equity firms alone are believed to hold as much as an additional $1.3 trillion.
While I’ve always doubted that the “money on the sidelines” argument is really all it’s cracked up to be, one can hardly argue with a recently released report from Harris Private Bank of Chicago (part of the US arm of the Bank of Montreal (BMO), which notes that, for 2 years, stocks have rallied whenever money-market assets have exceeded 25% of the S&P 500's capitalization. According to the Los Angeles Times, that figure is now 43%, down from 58%, after having peaked in December -- and that’s even after the 30%-plus run-up in the S&P 500 since March.
What’s interesting is that many investors holding large cash positions view their money as an asset, though it’s really more of a liability at this stage of the game. Some might take issue with that statement; after all, cash -- correctly deployed -- can allow an investor to sidestep the worst stretches of a financial crisis, like the one from which we’re currently attempting to extricate ourselves.
But when the markets are as beat-up as they as they have been, history suggests there’s probably more upside than downside -- even if we haven’t bottomed out yet. And there’s a broad body of research to support that contention -- including our own newly created LIBOR/Sentiment/Value (LSV) Index (published as a part of my firm's monthly investment newsletter).
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Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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