Minyan Mailbag: 2009 Will Be Golden Year

Lance Lewis  Dec 31, 2008 12:30 pm

Minyan Mailbag: 2009 Will Be Golden Year
 
Only place for yellow metal to go is up.
 

 
Remember, the system literally cannot function without inflation, and the US is a debtor nation on an epic scale. That leaves only 2 choices: Default, or debase, and they both lead to more inflation at the end of the line.

We saw a mere taste of this back in September and October, after Lehman went bust and blew a giant hole in the credit-derivative structure. The result was a freezing of the entire financial system and a step towards default.

The massive amount of new money created by the Fed can never be taken out of the system, though some seem to think it can - any attemp to do so would leave the system just as frozen as it was back in September and October. These hopeful individuals miss the reason why the Fed is being forced to inflate in the first place: The system needs more and more inflation at a parabolic rate simply to sustain itself. This is Greenspan's real legacy - a much larger version of Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.

Speaking purely from a mechanical standpoint, the only way the financial system (as dysfunctional as it has become over the years) can remain intact is via massive inflation, period. And just as we’ve seen over the past several months, politicians don’t have the stomach to allow the system to collapse, which could unleash social anarchy.

I’ve been saying this very same thing for several years, and I believe the events of 2008 have clearly borne that out - though they admittedly didn’t do so exactly in the order or precise manner that I thought they would (i.e. the Fed failed to inflate fast enough mid-year in 2008 in order to prevent Lehman and the rest of the credit dominos from falling, and that produced the global “margin call” back in the fall - one that even weighed on gold, to some extent).

Nevertheless, the fact that the Fed failed to inflate fast enough then only means it’s now having to inflate at an even greater rate - and the inflationary consequences will be much more dire as a result.

A resumption of the dollar’s decline and the reliquification of the financial system go hand in hand, because without inflation there would be no financial system. Importantly, gold (and other hard assets, to a lesser extent ) will be the assets that benefit the most from that inflation going forward.
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (11) See All Comments »
01-05-2009, 8:50 am
Thanks Lance, again your bullish report on gold came at yet another top, look at your history and try to post something a little bit more value-added. Regardless of how one trades you are tied to your postings so it would be a change in 2009 to be i
Read More
01-06-2009, 8:20 am
Yet another Lewis top in Gold. Dude, you suck or at least the timing of your bullish articles on gold SUCKS. You have posted bullish pieces within days, no, minutes, of the last three big tops in Gold, maybe you should trade something else because
Read More
01-12-2009, 9:43 am
Lance please let us know when you are reay to take your losses on gold so I can reverse my position
Read More
01-14-2009, 11:45 am
You suck LL, really, horrendous on gold, try copper or something else
Read More
02-12-2009, 10:25 pm
Another great call, Don. Who sucks now?
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
Positions in gold and gold stocks

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert