Turning Japanese

Minyanville Staff  Dec 24, 2008 9:30 am

Turning Japanese
 
Insights from Mr. Practical, ripped from The Exchange.
 

 
Minyan Sam: Since I can't afford to move out of the country, what can I do to protect myself? I retired at the end of 2007, so I'm trying to protect what I have. My home is paid for and I have no other debt, but I am concerned that these thieves in charge of our country will end up destroying everything I've worked for. I worked for an hourly wage all my life so I'm not wealthy, but have managed to save some money and at the present time I don't need to access it to pay my living expenses. Any general suggestions on what direction to go would be appreciated.

Mr. Practical: You are a real person in a real country, so you can't do what I do. Your flexibility is poor, which reality limits what you can do. My moving around is just meant to show by example how central banks dilute wealth over time by devaluing currencies. When you pay off debt you in a sense get long the dollar; this is why I recommended paying off debt before this thing got started. Strangely, at the right time (impossible to predict), one could take out as much debt as one can afford and buy raw property right before a hyperinflation occurs in the next few years (huge devaluation of dollar). I am not recommending trying this (I wrote about this before), because the timing and risk are huge if wrong.

Minyan John: I understand why you moved to “Yenville” as a wealth-preservation [play]. When Scrooge finally decides to help Tiny Tim get better by way of debt monetization (inflation), debasement plays out down the road. Do you see certain sectors participating, while others stay sidelined? I ask because I remember the Hunt brothers and the last blow-off of gold and silver - only to see periods of inflation and the precious pups slowly recede in value like a drained pond as the hoarding turned to expulsion. Any thoughts on this?

Mr. Practical: Gold will be a great buy in the $600s if it gets there. Certain stocks able to weather severe recession are very cheap, certain names beaten down by liquidation forces. But again, the first thing to do is pay off the mortgage. That's the best investment you can make.

Minyan Marion: You comment that "Gold will be a great buy in the $600s if it gets there" and then a few sentences later state "…the first thing to do is pay off the mortgage. That's the best investment you can make." These two strategies appear to be at odds with each other.
Buying gold makes sense if you have inflationary expectations, while paying off the mortgage is good recession strategy. If buying gold as an inflation hedge, why would you pay off a low-cost fixed-rate mortgage which would look pretty cheap in an inflationary environment?

Of course, if you're a market timer, I guess you could pay off the mortgage now (gaining a risk-free after-tax rate of return better than current treasury rates), and refinance (pulling out max equity) at fixed rates just before rates shoot up again and invest it in gold.

Mr. Practical: They are. Pay off your mortgage now, as over the next year deflation forces will be powerful (my opinion only). This (a) reduces risk, (b) is the best investment you can make in a deflationary environment and (c) is like going long the dollar as it strengthens in deflation. But at some point the deflation process will lead central banks to panic and monetize. This is when the dollar gets really devalued and then you want to be short the dollar. At this point, if gold is down in the $600s, it is a hedge against this (reversal of dollar down). Again, timing is hard and risky and that's why I am reluctant to even talk about this. So I just say to people, "Lower risk and buy a little gold if it goes down".
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (6) See All Comments »
12-24-2008, 4:11 pm
Fantastic, clear and courageous analysis.

My humble additions: apply Maslow's pyramid to your finances. Get the basics done first—live within your means, pay off debt and save some money. Why? Because whether the future b
Read More
12-24-2008, 4:45 pm
FYI, Pepe also had this conversation going on about the same time:

    
Inflation or deflation    
Report Abuse
12-17-2008, 5:01 pm

Part of the answer is simply ti
Read More
12-25-2008, 8:46 am
2-tiered currency system? How about a link? This sounds like bs.
Read More
12-26-2008, 11:24 am
I would like to second this request. Sounds like an interesting piece of research, would love to check it out first hand. Thanks in advance...

John
Read More
01-06-2009, 10:16 pm
Schiff invests all his wealth in gold (stored at the Perth Mint) and stocks denominated in foreign currencies (mostly commodity stocks). Why is this not a viable strategy for a hyperinflationary environment? Why must he physically leave the country a
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert