Transcript of Five Things You Need To Know the Podcast: Are We Facing the "Japan Scenario?"

Kevin Depew  Nov 03, 2008 12:50 pm

Transcript of Five Things You Need To Know the Podcast: Are We Facing the
 
Just like Five Things the Podcast, only transcribed.
 

 
And now here we have come full circle. So it doesn’t take but about seven or eight years for the maestro to suddenly be pilloried as the person who caused it all. And so, from a market psychology perspective, that’s exactly what has to happen. The idols of the bull market have to eventually be destroyed and torn down in the bear market. And I think this is -- before this bear market is over, we’re going to see that this is already beginning to happen and has, in some respects, happened to Alan Greenspan. We’re going to see this happen to Warren Buffett. All of theses idols of the bull market, socially we will eventually hold up as being disasters. And, you know, you saw the same thing -- this is just a cultural phenomenon; it happens in markets, it happens in pop culture -- where Britney Spears, a bull market pop icon, had to be torn down.

Cory Bortnicker: Mm-hmm.

Kevin Depew: Michael Jackson, the same thing. All these people who were icons during bull market periods of positive social mood, when social mood changes and becomes negative, they get torn down. Because let’s be honest, Britney Spears is -- what’s she, 26 years old, 27 years old? By any reasonable standard her behavior is less important than our perception of it.

Cory Bortnicker: Right.

Kevin Depew: And nobody cares about that kind of stuff during a positive social mood. Let’s get her out there on the stage and buy her records and have her perform over and over again, and let the nanny take care of the kids.

When social mood changes, then all of a sudden that becomes problematic. We need to see what exactly is going on here, because our mood has shifted, and, clearly, she can’t be out there performing, and we don’t like her music, and look what she’s doing to the kids. So, you know, it’s kind of that Jekyll and Hyde persona toward personalities--

Cory Bortnicker: Right.

Kevin Depew: That’s not really a comment about how she raises her children. It’s just the public perception of that is what changes.

Cory Bortnicker: So you’re saying that essentially -- I mean, you know, it’s relative to what your position is?

Kevin Depew: Absolutely. Positive social mood looks for the good in things. Negative social mood looks for the bad in things. And the bad in things that we’re going to look for are anybody who was associated with the bull market that’s come undone, whether that’s Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, or whomever.

Cory Bortnicker: Okay. So last question before we have to go. Greenspan said that he was shocked -- he used the term “shocked” -- to find out where we were. A year from now, do you anticipate that Ben Berneke will be shocked at how the bail-out plan has worked, or shocked about how it hasn’t worked, or will he not be shocked at all?

Kevin Depew: He’s going to be shocked, the way they are now. They were shocked that the subprime crisis was not well contained. They were shocked that their earlier measures that they began implementing last July and August were not enough to contain the mess. They’ve been shocked every month since then --

Cory Bortnicker: Right.

Kevin Depew: -- and so they’re going to continue to be shocked over and over again. And to come out and say, "Hey, we’re shocked that all this is not working" -- I think the other point of that is -- the most disturbing aspect of it is that now that these people have a tremendous track record of being shocked at their ineffectiveness, they’re still the people that we’re turning to to help solve the crisis.

Cory Bortnicker: Right.

Kevin Depew: So that to me is what we should all be shocked about; that the people who didn’t see any of this coming and didn’t understand and didn’t think it would happen are the very people we’re turning to to help get us out of it.
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Comments (3) See All Comments »
11-03-2008, 10:18 pm
Excellent and comprehensive. Many thanks for the transcription ! Some of us (OK, maybe just 1 Dill) are in places where the slow internet doesn't let us see the podcast !


Read More
11-05-2008, 6:06 pm
Kevin says:

""is deregulation a good thing?" Maybe it's not when you start to have companies reach such proportions that their argument is that they're too big to fail. Well, how did they get too big to fail? Th
Read More
11-05-2008, 7:29 pm

Is it possible that they aren't actually shocked but just need to pretend to be since the public wants them to do something to 'fix' the 'problem' and there is nothing that can be done that doesn't involve l
Read More
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