Fed's Tall "Tail"

Andrew Jeffery  Jul 18, 2008 12:15 pm

Fed's Tall
 
Government intervention inherently destabilizing.
 

 
After this week’s much publicized run-up in financial stocks like Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury would have us believe they exert a calming influence on the raging emotions of irrational markets.

Unfortunately, math isn’t on their side.

Rather than submerging markets in the tepid bath of government security, the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailouts and the restriction of short-selling on 19 key financial stocks created a violent move in the intended direction: Up.


Tuesday’s whoosh and reversal in the equity markets -- particularly the financials -- was truly phenomenal. The world all but ended in the morning, only to be triumphantly resurrected by the afternoon's close. Wells Fargo (WFC) took the baton and announced earnings that outpaced tempered expectations, and we were off to the races again the very next morning.

It was a rally for the ages. In fact, according to Doug Kass, Tuesday’s 13% move in the financial services exchange traded fund, the XLF, was an 11-standard deviation event. Kass pointed out the odds of such an occurrence are roughly the same as the world ending - three or four times.

The last time we saw moves of this magnitude was nearly a year ago, just before the Fed “surprised” the markets by cutting the Discount Rate. Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Viniar said jittery markets experienced staggering gyrations -- to the tune of 25 standard deviations -- just days before Bernanke sought to calm them.

Such brazen manipulation shouldn't inspire us to relax into the soothing embrace of the Plunge Protection Team. Rather, government intervention in financial markets is inherently destabilizing, as evidenced by the unprecedentedly rare events of a few days ago.

Financial market risk management is based on math, specifically on statistical models. Traders calculate the odds of an event happening, the potential loss if it does, and then invest accordingly.

Extremely rare events, sometimes called “tail events” (in reference to their position on the normal distribution), break those models and can cause huge losses. In fact, economic theorist Nassim Nicholas Taleb dedicated an entire book to Wall Street’s inability to cope with such highly improbable events, which he called "Black Swans.”

It used to be that most of these occurrences were caused by acts of nature, geopolitical shocks or long-term structural shifts in the way a certain market or group of peopled acted. Now, with alarming frequency, Washington creates these tail events under the guise of stabilization.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

As the market comes to rely on the Fed and the Treasury to heal its ills, traditional risk management is rendered useless. Investment banks are far better served by spending millions on crafty Washington lobbyists than on teams of expert statisticians and experienced traders to protect the firm’s capital.

Irrespective of one's opionion on the economy or the stock market, this isn't a welcome development.
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (7) See All Comments »
07-18-2008, 12:27 pm
Michael Mayo gets credit for his foretell in October
on C. But his following the panic-stricken herd lately
and raising his target to $20 only after it recovered
to $20, is weak.

Let's now recap other sky-is-falli
Read More
07-18-2008, 12:44 pm
Government intervention are just words for nothing left to loose.

Obviously a few quick bucks are more improtant to some people than freedom... perhaps the reason why we may someday indeed have nothing left to loose.

Read More
07-18-2008, 1:44 pm
While I am quite certain The Usual Suspects are destabilizing the markets to benefit their friends, I don't think the day-to-day closing prices of a stock or an index should be expected to be normally distributed. The samples are not independen
Read More
07-19-2008, 7:41 pm
Hi Dean.

You're precisely right. Autocorrelation et al cause most financial mkt prices to exhibit kurtosis (fat tails).

To me, the interesting question to noodle over is why Wall Street folks, who understand this pheno
Read More
07-21-2008, 10:23 am
Professor, glad to receive your input.

I had the opportunity at one point to help design a VAR model. We were considering Monte-Carlo versus historical, and it was observed that, under a historical model you would have to peg one-day
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
SPX »AMZN »RIMM »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert