Mortgage Future Now, Have One Later

Andrew Jeffery  Aug 25, 2008 8:45 am

Mortgage Future Now, Have One Later
 
Retirement savings may hold the key to solving the credit crisis.
 

 
If only home prices would stop plummeting, we could put this whole credit crunch nonsense behind us.

Unfortunately, a meaningful stabilization in property values is unlikely. Housing inventories are still at excessively high levels, unemployment is creeping up, consumers are stretched and mortgage underwriting guidelines are tighter than they've been in years. The outlook is bleak.

Left to the free market, these issues will take years to work through, as homeowners gradually scrape together the requisite finds to unbury themselves and banks grudgingly realize their losses. While this is the healthiest path economically, it’s also the least acceptable politically.

Short of immediate, full-scale nationalization of the mortgage market through seizure of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), there's little the government can do to halt the decline and stem the knock-on effects rippling through the national -- and indeed the international -- economy.

Much of regulators’ efforts thus far have been aimed at solving the problem of negative equity, where a borrower owes more on his home than it’s worth. Congress's recent housing bill allotted $300 billion for the Federal Housing Administration and other taxpayer-backed institutions to shoulder the growing burden.

Progress has been slow; the nasty realities of the situation have impeded plans that were largely ill-conceived to begin with.

Each day, thousands more homeowners find themselves underwater. Unable to sell without coughing up the difference between the unpaid balance on their loan and the sale price, borrowers are left with few options: Continue paying for a losing bet, fall behind and hope their lender will modify the loan, or simply walk away.

Banks like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wachovia (WB) and Bank of America (BAC) don’t have many palatable choices, either. Loath to accept short sales (agreeing to a sale price below the loan balance and forgiving the difference) because their beleaguered balance sheets can’t handle the pain, or to modify loans lest they anger securities investors, lenders are hoping they can just ride it out.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, estimated earlier this year that as many as 10% of all U.S. homeowners, or 8 million borrowers, are upside-down. With the median home price hovering around $200,000, this means the true value of housing stock (around $1.6 trillion) cannot be determined.

Thus far, home prices on a nationwide basis have fallen around 15% (depending on whose data you believe), which means roughly $240 billion in home equity is yet to be wiped out - despite the fact that it no longer exists.
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Comments (32) See All Comments »
08-25-2008, 9:37 pm
Im with you Olexsandra.

Dean- Think of Illiegal immigrants as future prospects not competition In America people can produce more than they use so they add to the economy. Even the lowliest laborers add value to our society and their ch
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08-26-2008, 10:48 am
Every solution I hear, short of letting the free markets work, seems ridiculously wrong-headed. Doing ANYTHING to attempt to put a floor under prices will only make the situation worse and make it last for a longer period of time. People can'
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08-26-2008, 11:00 am
John you make very good points. There is a clamor to do something in congress. I am offering a way for people to still be responsible instead of the current momentum which is debt forgiveness but I understand your logic. I take it you are not from
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08-26-2008, 11:19 am
I'm not sure I follow the logic, Brad. What you're proposing sounds like a bailout for the banks (don't need to recognize losses because the government funds the MTM loss and then charges the homeowner a below-market interest rate
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08-26-2008, 1:37 pm
My plan is just a brainstorm I meant it as a start not a complete solution. I am not looking to bail out the banks I am under the opinion that the government is going to bail them out with or without us I am just trying to present strategies that mig
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