Commerce is slowing from sizzling growth but shouldn’t fall off a cliff. Of course, the action in global equity markets and now commodities can’t be ignored. In the meantime, in my opinion, we asked for a stronger dollar, for lower crude prices, and now we are asking (demanding, really) intervention.

Technical View

It’s ugly, and even that’s an understatement for many sectors, including technology. For a long time technology was really only a handful of companies that dominated the imagination of investors. Those stocks haven’t fared well this year and that’s magnifying the weakness of the rest of the sector.

One niche in particular that looks horrific to me are the semiconductors. The chips look like clay pigeons that have already felt the sting of buckshot. The Semiconductor Index is at a five year low. That statement just doesn’t seem like it could be possible. Think of all the stuff powered by computer chips. Each year the list gets longer and longer, so what the heck is going on?


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Coming into today’s session, the S&P 500 is enduring its longest losing streak since January. The Dow is off 4.85% from Tuesday morning’s intra-day high. People are nervous. I sent out a special report late yesterday and said the session, despite the in-your-face drubbing, still didn’t feel like classic capitulation. That could change today depending on the jobs report. 

Recently, my team worked over the weekend to bring you the "September Effect," which shows a direct correlation to results in the first week of September to the next 52 weeks. Boy, oh boy, I hope that doesn’t prove to be the situation this time around. I will say, though, that the emotional swings of this market will create fabulous opportunities that will take nimbleness and nerve to capitalize upon.

The S&P 500 is in a negative chart pattern, making a series of lower highs and lows and taking out bottoms along the way. Right now it's critical that the index holds above 1,200.


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