Answers I Really Wanna Know: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?-Minyanville

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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

Todd Harrison Sep 16, 2008 8:45 am

Answers I Really Wanna Know: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?


		The Fed has an important decision to make today.

What will the new Wall Street look like?
If the FOMC cuts 50 bips, will popular perception be panic?
If they stand pat, will they be perceived complacent?
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If they middle it, will it be viewed as indecisive?
Indeed, isn’t the reaction to their efforts a function of social mood?
And doesn’t social mood and risk appetite shape tapes?
Given our focus on the disparity between equity and credit markets, shouldn’t we note that European CDS spreads significantly widened overnight?
Why does the media trot out the same folks who never saw this coming and look to them for when it will end?
John Thain—who arrived at Merrill Lynch (MER) last December—will take home $11,000,000 on the vesting of his free shares if he doesn’t stay after the sale?
How will AIG (AIG)—which will be worth $8 billion on the opening—raise $40 billion?
What’s the timeline on moving trading in the $62 trillion credit-default swaps market to a central clearinghouse or exchange?
Will Turnaround Tuesday—the nonsensical but somewhat reliable counter-trend session of the week—somehow save the day?
The average employee at Nintendo is on track to earn more for their company this year than the average Goldman Sachs (GS) employee did in 2007 (its best year ever)?
So lemme get this straight—Main Street is blaming Wall Street, Wall Street is looking to Washington and the government is passing the burden back to the people?
As my grandfather Ruby used to say, what goes around comes around?
If we were allowed to enter recession after the tech bubble burst, wouldn’t we already be well along the road of recovery?
Who decided recession was anathema?
Isn’t the business cycle a natural and necessary progression?
Shouldn’t Alan Greenspan shoulder some of that blame?
Doesn’t a little levity go a long way?
Is anyone else upset that finance has become a seven-day affair?
Especially on a Sunday when my beloved Raiders notch a “W”?
Isn’t the ability not to trade as important as trading ability?
As well as “When in doubt, flatten out?”
As I did yesterday in real-time on the Buzz & Banter?
If you're not on Buzz & Banter, why not take a FREE 14 day trial of our real-time commentary each trading day?
If AIG (AIG) messes the bed, will attention shift to General Electric (GE)?
Are you aware of the outsized option volatility in many of the financials?
While at the same time understanding that the VXO—the fear factor proxy on Wall Street—is about half way to previous pain fulcrums?
Doesn't it seem like Hank's Hail Mary was last season's business?
How long before a global conservatory is created?
Isn’t the only solution for what ails us time and price?
Doesn't this mess take us one step closer to resolution?
While tough to stomach, isn’t that a good thing?
Akin to a forest fire?
Powerful and scary but something that ultimately leads to rebirthing and fresh foliage?
If the ultimate destination is debt destruction, what is the path that we take to get there?
Isn’t our singular goal to be in a position to proactively prosper when the “outside-in” recovery finally arrives?
And to do that, don’t we need to stick together?
Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)

R.P.

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Comments (11)

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Paul Tyson

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09-16-2008, 11:14 am
It's eerie that when someone becomes established in the media's mind as an expert or even better a "guru" it does not matter how often they get it wrong or how horribly they get it wrong, their status in the media's eyes Read More

Jonathan Magid

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09-16-2008, 11:53 am
I too find this fascinating. To me it seems that the apparently inverse correlation between quality of analysis and quantity of television time is a reflection of people's fear of the unknown future. We WANT to hear the same old, same old eve Read More

Jim M

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09-16-2008, 12:08 pm
( Why does the media trot out the same folks who never saw this coming and look to them for when it will end?) When plowing fields with a mule farmers would put blinders on the mule so that his vision was limited and the m Read More

David Gondek

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09-16-2008, 12:20 pm
How does GM, with a market cap of a little over 5 billion and a negative 100 dollar plus book value, get a 25 billion dollar loan from the government???? How does Daimler-Benz pay 36 billion for Chrysler in 1998 and then pay Cerbe Read More

Sidney Keller

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09-16-2008, 1:49 pm
I tried to increase my position in WAMU this morning, before the bell, to be told that I didn't have enough money in my account, so, I transfered money from the "BANK" to the "BROKER", and was then told iot would take 24 Read More


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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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