Built to Fail: Key Lessons from the Financial Crisis Satyajit Das Jun 16, 2009 9:10 am |
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The GFC marks the end of unquestioned advocacy of free markets. Wang Qishan, Vice-Premier of China, tartly observed: "The teachers now have some problems."The GFC brings into question much of established orthodoxy of economic models and approaches. It calls into question social and political models based on high levels of economic growth and financial-, rather than real-economy-driven, growth.
The GFC also questions the ability of governments and their policy "wonks" to control the economic engines. As Wolfgang Münchau, columnist for the Financial Times, observed on June 14: "Instead of solving the problems to generate a recovery, the political strategies have consisted of waiting for a recovery to solve the problem. The Europeans are relying on the Americans to generate growth. The Americans are relying on the Chinese, who in turn are waiting for the rest of the world."
Recently in Canary Wharf, the financial district in London’s docklands, I noticed a small street stand erected by the English Teachers Union to recruit teachers. Two affable recruiters explained that they had heard that there was "a bit of financial crisis." Well-educated and highly motivated bankers who were losing their jobs by the thousands might like to consider a new career: teaching.
I questioned the adjustment in salaries -- a reduction of 60% to 95% -- that the change in careers would necessitate. One recruiter’s response stays with me: "If you haven’t got a job, then it’s not relevant, is it? It was never real money and it wasn’t going to ever last, was it?"Different strategies exist for dealing with the GFC. The most productive strategy may be to use the GFC to redirect talent and resources into the real economy and adjust living standards and expectations of economic growth.
As Keynes wrote in 1933: "We have reached a critical point. We can ... see clearly the gulf to which our present path is leading … [If governments do not take action,] we must expect the progressive breakdown of the existing structure of contract and instruments of indebtedness, accompanied by the utter discredit of orthodox leadership in finance and government, with what ultimate outcome we cannot predict."
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