Prieur Perspective: Market Running Out of Steam?

Prieur du Plessis  Jun 08, 2009 10:00 am

Prieur Perspective: Market Running Out of Steam?
 
But global economy still making its way back from the abyss.
 

The quote du jour comes from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who seems to share Bespoke’s concern that listening to the rating agencies is like making investment decisions based on last month's newspaper.

In a recent Wall Street Journal interview, he said: “I served on corporate boards. The way rating agencies worked is that they were paid by the people they rated. I saw that from the inside.”

He said he also saw this “inherent conflict of interest” as a fund manager. “I never paid attention to the rating agencies. If you relied on them you got ... you know. You did your own analysis. What is clear is that rating agencies always change something after it is obvious to everyone else. That’s why we never relied on them.”

In other news, during his first visit to Beijing as Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner went out of his way to assure the Chinese that their large holdings of US dollar assets were secure, and that the US administration remained committed to a strong dollar and keeping inflation under control. Although the Chinese leaders didn't again raise their unease that the US will inflate away its mounting debt, there were “plenty of other signs of concern," including tough questioning at Peking University, reported the Financial Times.

Regarding the outlook for the Chinese renminbi versus the US dollar, James Grant (Grant's Interest Rate Observer) said:

“We are bearish on the renminbi. On the other hand, we are also bearish on the US dollar, euro, pound, Swiss franc, and Zimbabwean dollar. We hate them all, with appropriate analytical nuances. Show us a monetary asset whose value is not subject to governmental debasement, and we will show you a Krugerrand.”

According to MarketWatch, President Barack Obama plans to announce on Monday how his administration is speeding up implementation of his $787 billion economic stimulus plan.

Oh yes, General Motors (GRM) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and was duly replaced as one of the 30 constituents of the Dow, whereas a judge cleared the path for Chrysler to exit bankruptcy by approving the sale of the bulk of the automaker's assets to a new entity to be managed by Italy's Fiat.

Focusing on the US stock markets, the most recent Investors Intelligence sentiment report shows that 42.5% of portfolio managers are now bullish on equities versus 25.3% that are bearish. While the high level of bullish sentiment seems to indicate an overbought market, the spread of 17.2% between bulls and bears is still below the 10-year average of 19%, according to Bespoke.

Interestingly, Barclays Capital issued a report on Monday showing that only 17.5% of the 605 global investors interviewed for its quarterly FX investor sentiment survey thought risky assets have further to rise. “Just 4.5% of respondents believe the trajectory of the global economy over the next year will be ‘V-shaped’ - indicating weakness followed by a sharp recovery,” reported the Financial Times.

An analysis of the moving averages of the major US indices shows all the indices (with the exception of the Dow Jones Transport Index) above their 50- and 200-day moving averages and May 8 highs. The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have also now surpassed their early January peaks.

16 of 16 (100%) found this helpful
Rate this article:  (16 Votes)
Comments (2) See All Comments »
06-08-2009, 7:20 am
Now there is real money - even though it doesn't pretend to be money (isn't denominated).

Money that pretends to be money suffers by comparison.
Read More
06-09-2009, 12:29 am
again a really nicely laid out web of pro/con, yes/but views from it seems like everywhere - it's like a bouquet of wills trying to draw the bee hive of readers, nice...

the two petals of info that stayed with me were:

Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert