Equity Returns Without Equity Risk?

Bill Feingold  Dec 17, 2008 11:45 am

Equity Returns Without Equity Risk?
 
Convertible returns keep buy-and-hold alive and well.
 

 
Put another way, if you buy a stock, you need someone else to ascribe a higher value to the equity in the future for you to make money. And while you can (and should) assign a time horizon to a trade, you may find yourself changing this horizon to your own detriment due to market action - even if you don’t think the fundamentals have changed.

Buying bonds frees you from the tyranny of Mr. Market. This is not to say there’s no place for trading, for equities, and for trying to outpace and outsmart the other guy. But it’s a lot easier to sleep at night knowing that, in order to be pretty right, you just have to make sure you aren’t really wrong. A bond’s maturity is a natural and firm horizon, one you need only revisit in the event of a drastic fundamental change.

Ordinarily this peace of mind comes at a steep price. Usually you have to forego the hope of double-digit returns. Usually you have to expose yourself to inflation. The trade may still be a good one, but rarely is it so clear.

But because the asset class of corporate debt has been demolished this year -- far beyond what even pessimistic economic observers feel is justified -- you can get equity returns without equity risk. As I’ve written previously, convertible bonds in particular remain an asset class without a home because of the horrific unwinding of leveraged arbitrage funds. But the assets themselves, in general, are valid. Clearly, some convertibles are more valid than others, but the massive unwind has given a whole new life to the baby/bathwater metaphor.

Consider Hologic (HOLX) 2% convertible bonds, my largest personal holding. The company makes diagnostic medical equipment for women. Once considered a prime takeover candidate when the stock was nearly 3 times current levels, Hologic has seen its stock fall to $13. An analyst I respect thinks the stock is conservatively worth twice that. But part of the reason I respect this analyst is because he knows not to overvalue his own opinion.

But let’s say the market chooses not to agree with him, and the company muddles along for the next 5 years. Let’s say the stock is still $13. The convertible bonds, currently trading around $0.58 on the dollar, will be worth a full dollar. This translates to a 14% annual return, with no leverage, and no worry about stock valuation. All you need is the company to stay in business.

There are other trades where you might make 14% in a month, a week, a day. But they require motion - fast and furious motion. Why not position some of your money where it can look dead to the outside observer but be alive -- comfortably, quietly, vibrantly alive -- for you?
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Comments (6) See All Comments »
12-17-2008, 1:40 pm
How does a non-professional investor (without access to a financial employer's library) research convertible issues? What are the best periodicals and reference materials that one is likely to encounter in a good public library?
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12-18-2008, 11:01 am
I second Mr. Lis. With the closing of Morgan Stanley's http://convertbond.com the most basic need is a web site that at least lists available convertibles. I've not been able to find a search/screen/filter for convertibles on any of the b
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12-19-2008, 1:03 pm
This is a great question. One good resource probably available in a good library is Value Line's Convertible Survey. There's also an excellent financial-information company called Kynex that's largely dedicated to the convertible
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12-19-2008, 1:04 pm
Please see my reply below.
Bill Feingold
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12-19-2008, 8:18 pm
I've been able to find convertible bonds using FINRA

http://www.finra.org/index.htm

Doesn't solve the problem of doing in-depth research to make an informed purchase decision, but at least helps me find convertib
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