Equity Returns Without Equity Risk? Bill Feingold Dec 17, 2008 11:45 am |
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Buying bonds frees you from the tyranny of Mr. Market. This is not to say there’s no place for trading, for equities, and for trying to outpace and outsmart the other guy. But it’s a lot easier to sleep at night knowing that, in order to be pretty right, you just have to make sure you aren’t really wrong. A bond’s maturity is a natural and firm horizon, one you need only revisit in the event of a drastic fundamental change.
Ordinarily this peace of mind comes at a steep price. Usually you have to forego the hope of double-digit returns. Usually you have to expose yourself to inflation. The trade may still be a good one, but rarely is it so clear.
But because the asset class of corporate debt has been demolished this year -- far beyond what even pessimistic economic observers feel is justified -- you can get equity returns without equity risk. As I’ve written previously, convertible bonds in particular remain an asset class without a home because of the horrific unwinding of leveraged arbitrage funds. But the assets themselves, in general, are valid. Clearly, some convertibles are more valid than others, but the massive unwind has given a whole new life to the baby/bathwater metaphor.
Consider Hologic (HOLX) 2% convertible bonds, my largest personal holding. The company makes diagnostic medical equipment for women. Once considered a prime takeover candidate when the stock was nearly 3 times current levels, Hologic has seen its stock fall to $13. An analyst I respect thinks the stock is conservatively worth twice that. But part of the reason I respect this analyst is because he knows not to overvalue his own opinion.
But let’s say the market chooses not to agree with him, and the company muddles along for the next 5 years. Let’s say the stock is still $13. The convertible bonds, currently trading around $0.58 on the dollar, will be worth a full dollar. This translates to a 14% annual return, with no leverage, and no worry about stock valuation. All you need is the company to stay in business.
There are other trades where you might make 14% in a month, a week, a day. But they require motion - fast and furious motion. Why not position some of your money where it can look dead to the outside observer but be alive -- comfortably, quietly, vibrantly alive -- for you?
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