Equity Returns Without Equity Risk?

Bill Feingold  Dec 17, 2008 11:45 am

Equity Returns Without Equity Risk?
 
Convertible returns keep buy-and-hold alive and well.
 

 
Will the next generation of investors, reviewing the events of the past decade, shy away from stocks, thus hurting valuations?

It’s certainly possible. While memories are usually amazingly short -- at least in my experience, we have to allow for some lasting effects from this crisis.

With triple-digit Dow moves becoming the norm, it may seem odd to talk about dead money. Money is scared, money is greedy - but it certainly doesn’t seem dead.

On the other hand, the death of buy-and-hold investing is being declared in a number of quarters, particularly given the events of the recent and even the not-so-recent past. But a world in which we’re all trying to out-trade one another hardly bodes well for full valuations.

Indeed, the idea that we all need to be traders, while understandable, screams zero-sum game. Furthermore, it reminds us that the equity markets have, at least in the short- and mediu-term, certain frightening Ponzi-like qualities. If we’re all trying to out-trade one another, we are absolutely depending on new money coming in to take us out.

The fact that we’re buying stakes in businesses -- in the economy -- ultimately validates equities. But this year has been a painful reminder that the comfortingly far-flung horizons we see on charts recommending equities for the long term are of little moment as we watch prices fall - and find ourselves imagining unimaginable scenarios.

Therein lies one of the main attractions of buying bonds now: You can get the kind of double-digit returns we used to associate with equities, but you don’t need to count on another buyer to pay a higher price. As long as there are other buyers of equity at some price -- as long as the company is still valid and solvent -- your strategy will work.
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Comments (6) See All Comments »
12-17-2008, 1:40 pm
How does a non-professional investor (without access to a financial employer's library) research convertible issues? What are the best periodicals and reference materials that one is likely to encounter in a good public library?
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12-18-2008, 11:01 am
I second Mr. Lis. With the closing of Morgan Stanley's http://convertbond.com the most basic need is a web site that at least lists available convertibles. I've not been able to find a search/screen/filter for convertibles on any of the b
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12-19-2008, 1:03 pm
This is a great question. One good resource probably available in a good library is Value Line's Convertible Survey. There's also an excellent financial-information company called Kynex that's largely dedicated to the convertible
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12-19-2008, 1:04 pm
Please see my reply below.
Bill Feingold
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12-19-2008, 8:18 pm
I've been able to find convertible bonds using FINRA

http://www.finra.org/index.htm

Doesn't solve the problem of doing in-depth research to make an informed purchase decision, but at least helps me find convertib
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