Five Things You Need to Know: Bulls Emboldened by Absence of Total Disaster Kevin Depew Oct 27, 2008 4:00 pm |
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Among my rich friends there is a general sense that this second "Gilded Age" has come to a screeching halt, the vague feeling that, at last, the fun has finally ended... Also, a painful swelling and throbbing in the big toe.
Some call it "Rich Man's Disease." Others, the "Disease of Kings." But there is no question that at least among a certain set of well-heeled imbibers with a taste for salty pork, the fat is in the fire.
It has probably been at least 50 years since The Gout has formally been recognized as a status symbol among America's striving middle class. In 1954, a woman who casually remarked to a friend that "My husband's gout is acting up again," could safely be branded as an insecure name-dropper and braggart; the modern day equivalent of complaining about the high cost of docking a yacht.
Oh, but that will soon change, Doc. These coming tough years, these hard, difficult times, will ensure that we see an awkward parade of limping Gout sufferers monopolizing cocktail party chatter with their swollen boasts... and joints. Mark my words.
Is It Possible They Don't Do It for the Money?
The New York Times this morning ran a skeptical, suspicion-filled piece on the "vibrant" CMJ Music Marathon that took place here in New York City recently, "Fame, Yes; Fortune, Not So Much."
The Times' John Pareles wrote, "It’s a great moment for musicians who want to be heard and a difficult one for musicians who need to be paid. Which didn’t prevent thousands of them from performing at CMJ — up to a dozen times in five days for bands like the Muslims, Women, Jay Reatard, the Vivian Girls and Pattern Is Movement — in hopes that sheer exposure will, sooner or later, pay off."
Indeed. But what is meant by "pay off"? In a deflationary debt unwind, it may simply mean the ability to subsist while doing something you truly love.
Debt Repudiation
"Hear me, people: We have now to deal with another race – small and feeble when our fathers first met them, but now great and overbearing. Strangely enough they have a mind to till the soil and the love of possession is a disease with them. These people have made many rules that the rich may break but the poor may not. They take their tithes from the poor and weak to support the rich and those who rule."
- Chief Sitting Bull, speaking on Capitol Hill following passage of the Bank Bailout Bill earlier this month
Actually, that little gem was delivered at the Powder River Conference in 1877. But it could have been delivered last week. Which is to say, some things - like The Rich living by different rules - never change. But so what? Well, for starters, one unintended consequence of the repudiation of debt could be a rejection of terms by the debtor class.
As the government inevitably attempts to nationalize more industries and bailout more companies, there is an increasing chance that the societal angst that follows could trigger a consumer debt revolt.
For example, take Capital One (COF), which today was among a handful of banks that "accepted" a $31 billion "capital infusion" from the federal government. At a point, you have to wonder how much more consumers take before they wake up and say, "Wait a minute, I have a Capital One credit card. So they're charging me a pretty high interest rate on my revolving debt while simultaneously using my tax dollars to support themselves?"
Where will it end? The incentive being inadvertently created by the federal government here is for consumers to begin to demand their bailout money too... and I don't mean a check in the mail for $600. At a point, people may simply decide to stop paying their revolving debt.
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Kevin Depew is the Executive Editor of Minyanville.com. Prior to joining Minyanville, Kevin spent more than five years as an analyst with Dorsey, Wright & Associates where he contributed to and edited the firm's daily research. Kevin welcomes your comments and/or feedback at kdepew@minyanville.com.
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