4. The Week Ahead: Retail Sales for Green Shoots

Is the consumer alive or dead? Has the recent run in the stock market cycled over to Main Street? This question will get at least a partial answer on Thursday when Retail Sales data is announced at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the economy. And retail Sales in particular account for half of total consumer spending, 1/3 of aggregate economic activity. Easy interpretation: when the consumer is dead, so is the American economy.

Last period, retail sales came in at -0.4. Exceeding expectations this week would add a little juice to the “green shoots” crowd’s cocktail. A disappointment, and we’re looking at ‘brown blades.”


5. News & Weirdness

Profits Diluted 4% by Record Stock Sales, Biggest Dividend Cuts Since 1938 - Bloomberg
Common stock increasing for first time in five years as companies raise capital through stock record stock sales; hence, the saying: "if you're buying when they're selling, a cardboard box will be your dwelling."

US May Announce TARP Repayments Today - Washington Post
About 20 smaller banks have so far been allowed to repay TARP money to avoid restrictions on executive pay and increased scrutiny. Large banks now expected to be "allowed" to join the ranks of the re-payers are JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and American Express (AXP).

But Not You: Wells Fargo May Not Get US Approval to Quit TARP - NY Post
Perhaps the healthiest bank going into the crisis, Wells Fargo (WFC), may not make the list of eligible TARP re-payers thanks to its purchase of Wachovia. 

Bernanke Conundrum Threatens Housing Recovery on Increasing Mortgage Rate  - Bloomberg
There's no "conundrum." The Fed promised to buy Treasuries to cap interest rates during the recovery, and the market knows they don't have the will to follow-through on the promise... at least not to the extent necessary to maintain low rates.

Gross Reduces Mortgage-Bond Holdings at Pimco to the Lowest Level in Year  - Bloomberg
Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX) cut holdings of mortgage debt from 64% to 61%; also reduced government-related debt to 25%, while boosting investment grade to 18%.

Fed Intends to Hire Lobbyist in Campaign to Buttress Its Image - Bloomberg
Look, it's bad enough when quasi-governmental agencies have to stoop to hiring "image improvement" experts. But when they drop to the level of hiring former lobbyists for Enron, well...

Banks Reduce Credit Card Mailings - NYT
Credit card solicitations fell 49% in the first quarter, debit card offers increased 96%.

Personal Bankruptcies Tied to Medical Bills - Washington Post
Sixty-two percent of all bankruptcies filed in 2007 were linked to medical expenses, according to American Journal of Medicine study.