Three Reasons the Dollar Will Not Prevail

Keith Fitz-Gerald  Oct 27, 2009 12:45 pm

Three Reasons the Dollar Will Not Prevail
 
It will lose its status as the global reserve currency -- and soon.
 

 
By now, virtually every investor has heard the argument that the US dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that’s good -- as far as it goes.

What’s bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize, and in a manner that will catch most by surprise.

Let’s take a look at the three key reasons that this shift away from the US dollar is happening -- and sooner rather than later:

1. The Asian Region Currency Partnership

Japan, once the staunchest of US allies, is leading the charge to form a regional currency partnership based on closer ties between itself, China, and South Korea. Ostensibly part of the second trilateral “leader’s meeting” that happened earlier this year, financial cooperation was front and center on the agenda (at Japan’s invitation) as a means of coping with the ongoing global financial crisis and with the subsequent resumption of worldwide financial growth. It was also key to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) discussions that took place this past weekend -- with the waning influence of the US economy again playing a key role in the discussion amongst potential ASEAN trading block partners.

At a time when US leaders are fooling only themselves by pretending this country remains the key player in the health of the worldwide economy, Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama didn’t mince words following the trilateral meeting when making such comments as “until now we have been too reliant on the United States” and “I would like to develop policies that focus more on Asia” to press-corps attendees.

Having spent 20 years in the region, I can’t say I’m surprised by this development. And you shouldn’t be, either. Between China, South Korea, and Japan, we’re talking about 16% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) -- a figure that’s growing almost daily, by the way.

There are obviously some significant challenges, given the cultural sensitivities that remain in the region as a result of World War II. But even those are being trumped by today’s serious global financial demands. After the three nations met, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao noted that “we have agreed to seek common ground and shelve our differences.”

In a column written from my family home in Japan earlier this year, I noted how important it is to “read between the lines” when investors are attempting to decode English-language statements being made by officials in Japan or China. It’s not what’s actually being said -- at least, not as Westerners hear it -- that’s important. What's been said has actually been shifted a bit by the translator. You really have to go back and make an effort to see just what it was the official actually meant.

Granted, that’s not the easiest of exercises. But it does force you to really look at what’s taking place -- which will usually give you a much more accurate picture than if you just trust what’s said by the Western press.

So Wen Jiabao’s statement can be construed as it’s “time to get down to business.”
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Comments (7) See All Comments »
10-27-2009, 1:44 pm
Dear Sir,

Isn't the fate of the Dollar tied to relative growth. Can China and Asia in general grow independently of the US without further structural long term changes particularly if it turns out Europe is in worse shape than the
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10-27-2009, 3:08 pm
don't know why i picked my comment title, just thought it was cute i guess ;-)

very fascinating article, with a great differentiating perspective -

the three prior comments above mine i think speak to a few issues that
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10-27-2009, 3:42 pm
Adan,

I am from South America ( I live in Buenos Aires) My take on the Dollar, and the US economy is very influenced by the fact I lived most of my life here. I have far more faith in the US than in any 3rd world country, be that mine or
Read More
10-27-2009, 4:12 pm
my bad then ;-)

glad you let me know -

though there's much about the U.S. itself that "third worldly" - it doesn't take much travel to see where there's a lot that's not...

th
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10-31-2009, 1:24 am
âDon't fear shadows -- they simply mean there's a light shining somewhere nearby.â

When the World leader is going to be a Communist ran country...the word of the day should be "Fear This".
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