An Angry World Tries To Find Its Footing Todd Harrison Nov 13, 2008 10:10 am |
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- For my part and with my money, I nibbled on some upside trading risk yesterday and have a smattering of exposure (BHP Billiton (BHP), DXO) and Dryships (DRYS) (as a commodity corollary). Doesn't make it right but it'll always be honest. That's how we roll in the 'Ville, win lose or draw.
- I was early fading (shorting) crude at $135 and I'll likely be early in fading (buying) it into this mess. The key difference between then and now, however, is that this is a pure trade while that was core construct of our structural deflation thesis. And yes, I'm leaving plenty of powder for lower purchases, if and when.
- It's tricky to rock a rhyme but it's ever trickier to trade this tape. Between TARP interpretation, redemption dissemination and the frustration sensation, there's nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. The easiest thing would be to just give up and hide but that's not an option. If they want to take what's ours, they'll have to bring it on a broader scale. Bring it.
- I echo Coop's view that upside apathy abounds (with a conscious nod that the VXO is 34% lower than the last time we tested these levels). Perhaps it's a by-product of "risk management over reward chasing" but folks are more concerned with survival than profit at present.
And finally, in an effort to help ye faithful maintain perspective, a random rant that speaks to the socioeconomic landscape:
Everywhere you turn, people are freakin'. They don't wanna turn on the television. They don't wanna read the paper. They don't wanna know from this show no more.
Case in point was this post on the MarketWatch message boards yesterday in response to my syndicated column that viewed the process of price discovery through an optimistic lens.
"Todd Harrison: You are just wrong. In fact I hope that you are the next person out on the street, destitute, eating dead rats that you cook over a garbage can fire. TO FEED YOUR CHILDREN. Then we will talk about your rosy optimism scenario in regards to the Great Depression. Yeah it was paradise for socialist agendas."
We rarely receive this type of feedback but it speaks to the shifting social mood and I share it for a reason. Negative energy is wasted energy and something good comes from all things bad. If you're not part of the solution, you're likely part of the problem.
We've done everything we possibly could to warn folks years in advance that this "prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise" was approaching. Now that it's here, we'll do our best to help folks find their way through.
Hey, I feel it too—we're all in this together. Nobody wants to see "the worst financial crisis in history" but it is what it is and we'll do what we must. We must attempt to sidestep the societal acrimony that we've spoken of all year or the crisis migration will shift from the financial sphere through the economic spectrum to outright social unrest.
We, the people, need to keep our chin up. It could be worse. You, or a loved one, could be sick or dying. You could lose an arm. You could lose your sight. You could—God forbid—be a Raider fan.
Perspective now, more than ever, is paramount. Don't forget to be true to you. No matter what, they can't take that away from us.
Minyan Mailbag: The Business of Giving - 12:56 pm
Todd,
You are the most successful and philanthropic-minded person that I know, so forgive me for asking. When someone from the hedge fund and private equity community contacts you regarding a suggested donation range to Ruby Peck, what do you quote? Have you adjusted your range in the past year, given the market environment?
I'm involved with an education related non-profit and wanted to calibrate our range.
Hope this finds you well,
Minyan Jay
MJ, 
Philanthropy is always a function of donor "comfort" levels. Case in point is the upcoming Festivus on December 4th (all ye faithful are invited). We have a sponsor menu (TD-Ameritrade, Atlantic Advisors and BTIG have been very generous) and the "rack rate" for attendees, which is a marginal mark-up from our cost.
Pete Moses of The Children's Aid Society has written some great stuff on the 'business of giving' and I would suggest giving those columns a read as he’s as good as it gets in the charitable space.
Thanks for the kind words and best of luck as you do your part to affect positive change.
-Toddo
R.P.
Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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