Special Edition Five Things: The US Dollar Kevin Depew Jun 16, 2009 1:15 pm |
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Because Americans as a whole spend more than they save, both individually and collectively as a government, that money has to come from somewhere.
- Since the more money the Fed creates, the weaker the dollar gets, how do we get all these dollars to spend without collapsing the currency ?
One way is through the purchases by central banks of countries like China and Japan. - We have to "sell" our Treasury bonds to countries willing to buy our debt, paying them interest for financing our spending.
- Foreign governments all over the world also use the dollar as a foreign exchange reserve, allowing them to control their own currency, increasing or decreasing it compared to other currencies, and to maintain stability of their currency in the event of an economic shock.
- Because the dollar is perceived as the most stable currency in the world (note: key word is perceived) countries are willing to finance our spending by purchasing dollars and bonds.
- But, if they begin to perceive they are not being adequately compensated for the risk of holding our debt, or if their dollars are depreciating faster than they like, these countries will demand a higher interest rate to buy our bonds. So, a weak dollar can lead to higher interest rates. That affects you, Mr. or Ms. Homeowner-Credit Card Spender-Business Professional-Student!
5. Ok, so bottom line is this for me: In the simplest terms, what are the advantages or disadvantages of a stronger or weaker currency?
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Weak dollar - Advantages
- Easier for U.S. companies to export goods because foreign currencies can buy "more" against the weaker dollar.
- Tourism increases because foreign visitors find it less expensive to visit.
- To an extent, foreigners will view investment opportunities here more favorably since they can buy more for their yuan/yen/euro/pound, etc. - Weak dollar - Disadvantages
- Higher prices for consumers. (We don't notice this because the Chinese yuan is tied to the dollar in a tight range and most of our imports come from China - just look at your shirt and your shoes!)
- Higher interest rates, i.e. higher cost of money to consumers.
- More expensive to travel abroad.
Strong dollar - Advantages
- Lower prices for imported goods.
- U.S. investors can buy foreign assets and investments at lower prices.- Strong dollar - Disadvantages
- Harder for U.S. companies to compete abroad.
- More expensive for foreigners to visit U.S.
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